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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.87+2.13vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.56+1.63vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.70+0.37vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.74+1.54vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.23+1.87vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.55+0.05vs Predicted
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7U. S. Military Academy0.51+1.41vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.74-2.47vs Predicted
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9SUNY Stony Brook0.05+0.80vs Predicted
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10University of Rochester0.94-2.36vs Predicted
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11Wesleyan University-1.15+1.30vs Predicted
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12Columbia University-0.48-1.04vs Predicted
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13Williams College-0.36-2.40vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-0.63-2.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.13Dartmouth College2.870.2%1st Place
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3.63Brown University2.560.2%1st Place
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3.37Brown University2.700.2%1st Place
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5.54Fordham University1.740.1%1st Place
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6.87SUNY Maritime College1.230.0%1st Place
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6.05U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.550.1%1st Place
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8.41U. S. Military Academy0.510.0%1st Place
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5.53Cornell University1.740.1%1st Place
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9.8SUNY Stony Brook0.050.0%1st Place
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7.64University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
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12.3Wesleyan University-1.150.0%1st Place
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10.96Columbia University-0.480.0%1st Place
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10.6Williams College-0.360.0%1st Place
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11.16Rochester Institute of Technology-0.630.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Johansson | 24.3% | 23.4% | 17.0% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Harding | 17.8% | 17.9% | 18.9% | 14.3% | 11.6% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Quinn Andersen | 22.0% | 19.6% | 16.0% | 14.9% | 11.4% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Stapp | 6.6% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 15.0% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| James Keegan | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Joshua Morrison | 7.0% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Michael Danko | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 5.4% | 1.1% |
| Colin Keil | 8.0% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cody Murphy | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 12.0% | 14.2% | 15.5% | 15.4% | 11.6% | 6.0% |
| Tyler Rochon | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Lauren Javaly | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 17.5% | 45.7% |
| Loren Myers | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 15.1% | 15.4% | 20.7% | 15.7% |
| William Gomez | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 19.4% | 18.7% | 11.1% |
| Adam Hicks | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 16.6% | 22.1% | 18.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.