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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii1.31+3.56vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii1.47+2.40vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii0.51+4.40vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida0.99+1.89vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida0.16+3.68vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara1.22-1.26vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California-0.12+2.49vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida0.52-0.75vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii0.29-0.92vs Predicted
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10University of Victoria0.13-1.53vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara0.06-2.58vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.40-0.71vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.86-1.23vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.00-1.49vs Predicted
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15Unknown School-1.07-2.57vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis-2.15-0.57vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-1.50-3.30vs Predicted
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18Rutgers University-2.83-1.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.56University of Hawaii1.3115.4%1st Place
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4.4University of Hawaii1.4717.0%1st Place
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7.4University of Hawaii0.515.8%1st Place
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5.89University of South Florida0.9910.4%1st Place
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8.68University of South Florida0.163.6%1st Place
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4.74University of California at Santa Barbara1.2213.8%1st Place
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9.49University of Southern California-0.123.5%1st Place
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7.25University of South Florida0.526.7%1st Place
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8.08University of Hawaii0.294.5%1st Place
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8.47University of Victoria0.135.4%1st Place
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8.42University of California at Santa Barbara0.064.9%1st Place
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11.29University of California at Berkeley-0.402.0%1st Place
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11.77Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.862.1%1st Place
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12.51Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.001.6%1st Place
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12.43Unknown School-1.071.1%1st Place
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15.43University of California at Davis-2.150.6%1st Place
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13.7University of California at San Diego-1.501.3%1st Place
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16.51Rutgers University-2.830.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everett McAvoy | 15.4% | 15.6% | 13.2% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arden Rathkopf | 17.0% | 14.6% | 13.1% | 13.0% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Martha Schuessler | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kalea Woodard | 10.4% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marina Dreyfuss | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Erisman | 13.8% | 15.3% | 13.7% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lara Granucci | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Heidi Hicks | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kahlia Bailey | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Lemke | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Aivan Durfee | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| Noa Brassfield | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 10.6% | 7.4% | 1.6% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 14.7% | 10.8% | 3.5% |
| Aevyn Jackson | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.0% |
| Nicholas Conti | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 13.5% | 28.4% | 26.1% |
| Liza Churkov | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 16.7% | 16.5% | 8.9% |
| Terry Nguyen | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 19.2% | 55.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.