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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.74+4.44vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.70+1.36vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.87+0.08vs Predicted
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4U. S. Military Academy0.51+4.67vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.55+1.08vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.23+0.83vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.56-3.45vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.74-2.46vs Predicted
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9SUNY Stony Brook0.05+0.79vs Predicted
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10University of Rochester0.94-2.36vs Predicted
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11Williams College-0.36-0.25vs Predicted
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12Columbia University-0.48-1.05vs Predicted
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13Rochester Institute of Technology-0.63-1.85vs Predicted
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14Wesleyan University-1.15-1.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.44Fordham University1.740.1%1st Place
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3.36Brown University2.700.2%1st Place
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3.08Dartmouth College2.870.2%1st Place
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8.67U. S. Military Academy0.510.0%1st Place
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6.08U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.550.1%1st Place
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6.83SUNY Maritime College1.230.0%1st Place
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3.55Brown University2.560.2%1st Place
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5.54Cornell University1.740.1%1st Place
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9.79SUNY Stony Brook0.050.0%1st Place
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7.64University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
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10.75Williams College-0.360.0%1st Place
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10.95Columbia University-0.480.0%1st Place
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11.15Rochester Institute of Technology-0.630.0%1st Place
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12.16Wesleyan University-1.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Stapp | 7.9% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Quinn Andersen | 20.6% | 20.1% | 18.6% | 14.0% | 11.2% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Johansson | 24.5% | 22.6% | 16.7% | 13.6% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Danko | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 1.8% |
| Joshua Morrison | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| James Keegan | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 14.9% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Timothy Harding | 19.9% | 18.1% | 16.0% | 15.0% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 8.1% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 12.9% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cody Murphy | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 15.3% | 16.2% | 14.3% | 11.8% | 5.9% |
| Tyler Rochon | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| William Gomez | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 18.8% | 17.8% | 13.7% |
| Loren Myers | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 14.5% | 16.4% | 18.8% | 16.6% |
| Adam Hicks | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 16.9% | 19.5% | 20.5% |
| Lauren Javaly | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 21.0% | 40.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.