Race 15A

st-mary-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Michael Menninger 10.7% 11.0% 9.5% 9.6% 9.3% 7.8% 8.1% 7.3% 5.8% 5.0% 3.6% 5.0% 2.8% 2.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Michael Whitford 2.7% 2.4% 3.4% 3.5% 4.2% 4.8% 5.3% 5.3% 6.2% 6.5% 5.7% 7.0% 8.2% 8.7% 8.1% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0%
Samuel Ingham 8.4% 7.9% 8.8% 9.8% 7.7% 7.5% 8.4% 6.8% 7.4% 5.9% 6.8% 4.9% 3.6% 3.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Anne Haeger 7.9% 8.9% 7.9% 7.9% 7.3% 5.9% 7.9% 7.2% 6.9% 7.5% 6.3% 5.6% 4.4% 2.6% 2.0% 2.1% 1.2% 0.5%
Stephanie Roble 3.5% 4.9% 4.6% 5.7% 5.3% 4.0% 4.8% 4.9% 6.8% 5.8% 7.1% 6.0% 7.0% 7.0% 8.1% 6.3% 6.1% 2.1%
Jackson Benvenutti 6.9% 6.0% 6.3% 7.8% 7.1% 9.3% 6.6% 8.4% 6.4% 6.9% 5.3% 5.3% 5.0% 4.4% 3.3% 3.1% 1.2% 0.7%
Samuel Blouin 8.1% 8.3% 8.1% 7.8% 6.6% 9.0% 7.5% 6.2% 7.0% 6.9% 5.7% 6.1% 5.2% 2.8% 2.3% 1.3% 1.0% 0.1%
Robert Vann 7.0% 7.7% 7.1% 8.2% 5.9% 7.1% 7.3% 7.0% 7.3% 4.9% 7.3% 6.1% 6.8% 4.9% 2.2% 1.5% 1.5% 0.2%
Charlie Buckingham 15.8% 15.3% 13.0% 9.5% 11.5% 8.9% 6.2% 6.1% 4.8% 2.9% 3.1% 1.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Joshua Greenslade 5.3% 4.1% 4.3% 5.1% 3.6% 5.2% 4.9% 6.3% 6.9% 7.7% 5.9% 7.8% 7.2% 6.5% 6.4% 7.2% 4.0% 1.6%
John Stokes 5.9% 5.6% 6.3% 5.7% 6.9% 6.3% 6.3% 6.8% 6.7% 5.9% 7.8% 6.7% 6.6% 5.4% 4.4% 3.5% 1.9% 1.3%
Ben Greenfield 4.7% 5.2% 6.1% 4.2% 6.6% 6.2% 5.8% 6.7% 5.2% 6.0% 6.7% 7.4% 7.0% 6.5% 7.1% 4.6% 3.0% 1.0%
Claire Dennis 3.3% 2.9% 4.5% 2.5% 4.5% 3.1% 5.4% 5.3% 5.5% 6.2% 5.2% 7.2% 6.1% 9.2% 8.0% 7.9% 9.0% 4.2%
Nick Dugdale 3.2% 3.0% 3.3% 3.9% 4.9% 4.6% 5.3% 4.6% 4.6% 6.1% 6.7% 4.8% 7.4% 7.9% 10.3% 7.6% 6.5% 5.3%
Joseph Kelleher 2.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.6% 2.9% 3.9% 4.1% 3.8% 5.0% 5.6% 7.1% 5.7% 7.1% 8.4% 8.9% 9.8% 9.8% 7.3%
Christopher Stessing 1.6% 1.9% 1.6% 2.0% 2.2% 2.6% 3.1% 2.9% 3.2% 5.1% 4.0% 6.0% 6.8% 7.2% 9.3% 11.7% 14.1% 14.7%
Jeff Hahl 1.4% 1.4% 1.2% 2.3% 2.0% 2.4% 1.9% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% 4.4% 4.3% 7.8% 8.7% 11.2% 18.6% 20.8%
Blair Davis 1.5% 0.5% 1.1% 1.9% 1.5% 1.4% 1.1% 1.9% 1.3% 2.1% 2.6% 2.8% 3.5% 5.2% 7.4% 11.9% 15.2% 37.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.