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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.22+3.65vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California-0.12+7.26vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii1.31+1.61vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii0.51+3.56vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara0.06+3.36vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida0.52+1.23vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii1.47-2.72vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida0.99-2.05vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida0.16-0.52vs Predicted
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10University of Victoria0.13-1.48vs Predicted
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11University of Hawaii0.29-2.95vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.40-0.66vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.00-0.29vs Predicted
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14Unknown School-1.07-1.42vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.86-3.21vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis-2.15-0.53vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-1.50-3.29vs Predicted
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18Rutgers University-2.83-1.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.65University of California at Santa Barbara1.2214.4%1st Place
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9.26University of Southern California-0.124.0%1st Place
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4.61University of Hawaii1.3115.3%1st Place
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7.56University of Hawaii0.516.0%1st Place
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8.36University of California at Santa Barbara0.065.3%1st Place
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7.23University of South Florida0.525.9%1st Place
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4.28University of Hawaii1.4716.7%1st Place
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5.95University of South Florida0.999.2%1st Place
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8.48University of South Florida0.164.6%1st Place
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8.52University of Victoria0.134.5%1st Place
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8.05University of Hawaii0.294.7%1st Place
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11.34University of California at Berkeley-0.401.9%1st Place
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12.71Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.001.5%1st Place
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12.58Unknown School-1.071.7%1st Place
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11.79Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.861.9%1st Place
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15.47University of California at Davis-2.150.3%1st Place
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13.71University of California at San Diego-1.501.4%1st Place
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16.46Rutgers University-2.830.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Erisman | 14.4% | 13.9% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lara Granucci | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Everett McAvoy | 15.3% | 14.9% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Martha Schuessler | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Heidi Hicks | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arden Rathkopf | 16.7% | 15.7% | 14.1% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kalea Woodard | 9.2% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marina Dreyfuss | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Nathan Lemke | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Kahlia Bailey | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Aivan Durfee | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 5.1% | 1.4% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 14.1% | 13.9% | 11.2% | 3.7% |
| Aevyn Jackson | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 15.9% | 10.2% | 3.9% |
| Noa Brassfield | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 2.6% |
| Nicholas Conti | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 26.9% | 27.1% |
| Liza Churkov | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 19.1% | 17.8% | 7.0% |
| Terry Nguyen | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 19.1% | 53.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.