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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+2.93vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.46+1.01vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.92+3.84vs Predicted
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4Washington College1.52+4.04vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.03+1.65vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.58-0.90vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.72+0.43vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.97-1.24vs Predicted
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9Hampton University2.00-2.32vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.33-4.14vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania-0.39+1.64vs Predicted
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12Columbia University0.11-0.09vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.83-2.90vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia0.16-2.43vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.92-1.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.93St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.2%1st Place
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3.01Georgetown University3.460.3%1st Place
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6.84Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.920.1%1st Place
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8.04Washington College1.520.0%1st Place
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6.65Old Dominion University2.030.1%1st Place
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5.1George Washington University2.580.1%1st Place
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7.43Fordham University1.720.1%1st Place
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6.76Cornell University1.970.1%1st Place
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6.68Hampton University2.000.1%1st Place
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5.86U. S. Naval Academy2.330.1%1st Place
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12.64University of Pennsylvania-0.390.0%1st Place
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11.91Columbia University0.110.0%1st Place
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10.1Christopher Newport University0.830.0%1st Place
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11.57University of Virginia0.160.0%1st Place
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13.49SUNY Stony Brook-0.920.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolyn Smith | 18.7% | 17.4% | 15.4% | 13.3% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katia DaSilva | 29.4% | 21.7% | 14.4% | 12.3% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christine Moloney | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 2.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 5.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Sarah Streater | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Miranda Bakos | 8.2% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Johanna Monro | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Quinn Howes | 6.0% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Cristina Ortiz Vivas | 5.5% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Hughes | 7.3% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cary Kane | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 11.3% | 16.0% | 25.9% | 25.1% |
| Elizabeth Siegal | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 14.7% | 21.2% | 20.6% | 12.4% |
| Hannah Cantolino | 1.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 18.1% | 12.5% | 9.2% | 2.9% |
| Casey Firth | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 21.0% | 20.7% | 9.0% |
| Jessica Kurlander | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 11.8% | 18.6% | 49.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.