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📊 Prediction Accuracy
73.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University2.03+5.50vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.33+3.66vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+0.87vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.46-0.89vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.58+0.17vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.72+1.52vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.97-0.27vs Predicted
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8Washington College1.52+0.02vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.92-2.13vs Predicted
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10Columbia University0.11+1.76vs Predicted
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11Hampton University2.00-4.23vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.83-1.84vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia0.16-1.28vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania-0.39-1.34vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.92-1.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.5Old Dominion University2.030.1%1st Place
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5.66U. S. Naval Academy2.330.1%1st Place
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3.87St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.2%1st Place
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3.11Georgetown University3.460.3%1st Place
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5.17George Washington University2.580.1%1st Place
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7.52Fordham University1.720.0%1st Place
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6.73Cornell University1.970.1%1st Place
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8.02Washington College1.520.0%1st Place
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6.87Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.920.0%1st Place
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11.76Columbia University0.110.0%1st Place
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6.77Hampton University2.000.1%1st Place
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10.16Christopher Newport University0.830.0%1st Place
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11.72University of Virginia0.160.0%1st Place
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12.66University of Pennsylvania-0.390.0%1st Place
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13.47SUNY Stony Brook-0.920.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Streater | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Hannah Hughes | 7.7% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Smith | 18.1% | 16.1% | 17.1% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katia DaSilva | 27.0% | 21.2% | 15.0% | 14.8% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Miranda Bakos | 11.0% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Johanna Monro | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Quinn Howes | 6.4% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 9.0% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Christine Moloney | 4.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Siegal | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 10.5% | 13.9% | 17.4% | 22.1% | 12.0% |
| Cristina Ortiz Vivas | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Hannah Cantolino | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 13.9% | 17.8% | 15.5% | 7.6% | 1.7% |
| Casey Firth | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 8.9% | 15.6% | 20.3% | 19.0% | 12.6% |
| Cary Kane | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 11.2% | 17.8% | 24.1% | 25.2% |
| Jessica Kurlander | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 11.4% | 21.2% | 47.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.