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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.33+4.68vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.46+1.01vs Predicted
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3Hampton University2.00+3.61vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.72+3.50vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-0.95vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.92+0.98vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.58-1.92vs Predicted
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8Washington College1.52+0.03vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.97-2.31vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.03-3.31vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.83-1.04vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania-0.39+0.88vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia0.16-1.31vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.92-0.46vs Predicted
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15Columbia University0.11-3.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.68U. S. Naval Academy2.330.1%1st Place
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3.01Georgetown University3.460.3%1st Place
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6.61Hampton University2.000.1%1st Place
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7.5Fordham University1.720.0%1st Place
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4.05St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.2%1st Place
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6.98Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.920.0%1st Place
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5.08George Washington University2.580.1%1st Place
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8.03Washington College1.520.0%1st Place
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6.69Cornell University1.970.1%1st Place
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6.69Old Dominion University2.030.1%1st Place
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9.96Christopher Newport University0.830.0%1st Place
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12.88University of Pennsylvania-0.390.0%1st Place
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11.69University of Virginia0.160.0%1st Place
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13.54SUNY Stony Brook-0.920.0%1st Place
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11.62Columbia University0.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannah Hughes | 8.9% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Katia DaSilva | 29.7% | 20.7% | 16.5% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cristina Ortiz Vivas | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Johanna Monro | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Carolyn Smith | 16.3% | 17.6% | 14.5% | 13.7% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christine Moloney | 4.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Miranda Bakos | 11.1% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 12.9% | 9.1% | 5.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Quinn Howes | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Streater | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Hannah Cantolino | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 10.2% | 14.6% | 16.1% | 12.9% | 8.5% | 2.6% |
| Cary Kane | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 11.1% | 18.6% | 26.2% | 26.9% |
| Casey Firth | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 10.4% | 16.1% | 21.8% | 17.8% | 10.9% |
| Jessica Kurlander | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 6.7% | 12.8% | 20.5% | 47.7% |
| Elizabeth Siegal | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 10.1% | 14.7% | 17.7% | 21.8% | 10.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.