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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of South Florida0.52+6.19vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii1.28+2.78vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii0.51+4.31vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii0.29+3.87vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California-0.12+4.38vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii1.47-1.76vs Predicted
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7University of Victoria0.13+1.46vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida0.16+0.47vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-0.40+2.21vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida0.99-4.08vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara0.06-2.36vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara1.22-7.39vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.00-0.37vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.86-2.19vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-1.50-1.09vs Predicted
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16Unknown School-1.07-3.47vs Predicted
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17Rutgers University-2.83-0.39vs Predicted
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18University of California at Davis-2.15-2.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.19University of South Florida0.526.1%1st Place
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4.78University of Hawaii1.2814.0%1st Place
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7.31University of Hawaii0.517.3%1st Place
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7.87University of Hawaii0.295.5%1st Place
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9.38University of Southern California-0.124.2%1st Place
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4.24University of Hawaii1.4717.6%1st Place
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8.46University of Victoria0.134.3%1st Place
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8.47University of South Florida0.163.7%1st Place
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11.21University of California at Berkeley-0.401.8%1st Place
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5.92University of South Florida0.999.7%1st Place
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8.64University of California at Santa Barbara0.064.3%1st Place
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4.61University of California at Santa Barbara1.2215.7%1st Place
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12.63Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.001.4%1st Place
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11.81Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.861.2%1st Place
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13.91University of California at San Diego-1.500.9%1st Place
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12.53Unknown School-1.071.4%1st Place
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16.61Rutgers University-2.830.1%1st Place
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15.43University of California at Davis-2.150.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heidi Hicks | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Fleming | 14.0% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Martha Schuessler | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kahlia Bailey | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Lara Granucci | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Arden Rathkopf | 17.6% | 14.8% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Lemke | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Marina Dreyfuss | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Aivan Durfee | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 4.7% | 0.9% |
| Kalea Woodard | 9.7% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Erisman | 15.7% | 14.1% | 13.1% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 13.6% | 13.8% | 10.7% | 3.5% |
| Noa Brassfield | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 1.1% |
| Liza Churkov | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 19.6% | 17.2% | 8.9% |
| Aevyn Jackson | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 13.7% | 13.4% | 9.6% | 3.5% |
| Terry Nguyen | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 17.5% | 56.6% |
| Nicholas Conti | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 8.9% | 13.7% | 29.6% | 24.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.