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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.46+1.96vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.50+3.04vs Predicted
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3Hampton University2.00+3.52vs Predicted
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4Washington College1.52+3.99vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.92+1.83vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.03+0.49vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.33-1.47vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.58-3.07vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.83+0.86vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia0.16+1.56vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.72-3.58vs Predicted
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12Columbia University0.11-0.14vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.97-6.14vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania-0.39-1.36vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.92-1.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.96Georgetown University3.460.3%1st Place
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5.04St. Mary's College of Maryland2.500.1%1st Place
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6.52Hampton University2.000.1%1st Place
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7.99Washington College1.520.0%1st Place
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6.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.920.1%1st Place
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6.49Old Dominion University2.030.1%1st Place
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5.53U. S. Naval Academy2.330.1%1st Place
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4.93George Washington University2.580.1%1st Place
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9.86Christopher Newport University0.830.0%1st Place
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11.56University of Virginia0.160.0%1st Place
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7.42Fordham University1.720.0%1st Place
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11.86Columbia University0.110.0%1st Place
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6.86Cornell University1.970.1%1st Place
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12.64University of Pennsylvania-0.390.0%1st Place
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13.48SUNY Stony Brook-0.920.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katia DaSilva | 28.4% | 23.8% | 16.6% | 11.1% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marissa Golison | 10.3% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cristina Ortiz Vivas | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Christine Moloney | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sarah Streater | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Hughes | 10.1% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Miranda Bakos | 12.0% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Cantolino | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 13.7% | 15.0% | 13.1% | 7.9% | 2.1% |
| Casey Firth | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 10.2% | 15.2% | 18.3% | 20.2% | 10.9% |
| Johanna Monro | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Elizabeth Siegal | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 22.2% | 20.5% | 12.3% |
| Quinn Howes | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Cary Kane | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 12.5% | 17.3% | 23.5% | 25.8% |
| Jessica Kurlander | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 10.8% | 22.3% | 48.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.