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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.20+5.68vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.54vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.82+4.09vs Predicted
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4San Diego State University2.27+2.08vs Predicted
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5Boston College2.20+1.96vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.54+3.87vs Predicted
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7California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+0.93vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California1.71+0.70vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego1.30+0.91vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+0.63vs Predicted
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11Tulane University2.28-4.81vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara1.35-4.50vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley0.86-1.51vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands0.82-2.09vs Predicted
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15University of Washington1.07-5.06vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27-1.22vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University0.16-3.29vs Predicted
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18University of Washington-0.29-2.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.68Georgetown University2.208.9%1st Place
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6.54St. Mary's College of Maryland2.579.0%1st Place
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7.09George Washington University1.829.5%1st Place
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6.08San Diego State University2.2711.6%1st Place
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6.96Boston College2.207.5%1st Place
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9.87Fordham University1.543.5%1st Place
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7.93California Poly Maritime Academy1.926.5%1st Place
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8.7University of Southern California1.715.5%1st Place
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9.91University of California at San Diego1.304.4%1st Place
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10.63U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.403.1%1st Place
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6.19Tulane University2.2810.8%1st Place
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7.5University of California at Santa Barbara1.358.6%1st Place
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11.49University of California at Berkeley0.862.4%1st Place
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11.91California State University Channel Islands0.822.1%1st Place
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9.94University of Washington1.073.5%1st Place
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14.78Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.271.1%1st Place
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13.71Northwestern University0.161.5%1st Place
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15.08University of Washington-0.290.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Escobar | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Noah Nyenhuis | 11.6% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Kirkman | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Thress | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 1.2% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Allie Shand | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 0.9% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 2.1% |
| Kelly Holthus | 10.8% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jasper Reid | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Carsten Zieger | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 4.3% |
| Sterling Maggard | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 5.5% |
| Lucien Freemesser | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 1.3% |
| Samuel Groom | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 18.9% | 31.9% |
| Grace Bray | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 17.4% | 16.6% |
| Stephanie Seto | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 11.5% | 19.4% | 35.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.