Race 1B

st-mary-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Megan Magill 6.0% 7.8% 7.4% 4.7% 7.2% 9.0% 7.1% 7.9% 6.1% 6.9% 5.5% 5.1% 6.7% 5.3% 4.2% 2.2% 0.8% 0.1%
Frederick Whitman 4.2% 4.9% 5.3% 5.9% 5.6% 7.9% 6.3% 6.4% 7.0% 7.5% 8.1% 8.1% 6.6% 6.3% 5.0% 3.3% 1.4% 0.2%
Jordan Factor 5.3% 4.1% 5.7% 4.9% 6.3% 5.9% 6.2% 6.6% 5.9% 8.2% 8.3% 6.5% 7.0% 8.5% 4.3% 4.3% 1.8% 0.2%
David Thompson 13.2% 14.6% 11.5% 9.6% 11.0% 6.3% 8.0% 6.4% 5.9% 3.8% 2.8% 2.8% 1.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Emily Lambert 6.3% 6.7% 7.7% 6.1% 6.3% 7.2% 6.2% 6.5% 6.9% 7.2% 6.5% 5.7% 5.9% 5.8% 4.8% 2.8% 1.3% 0.1%
Chris Barnard 16.6% 16.3% 13.4% 13.0% 8.7% 7.9% 6.3% 5.8% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jonathan Duffett 5.6% 5.0% 6.5% 7.2% 4.9% 4.4% 6.5% 6.6% 7.6% 7.8% 7.4% 6.7% 7.6% 5.0% 5.4% 3.7% 1.7% 0.4%
Emily Maxwell 4.9% 6.1% 5.8% 6.7% 5.7% 6.6% 5.7% 5.5% 6.2% 7.5% 6.9% 8.3% 6.8% 6.2% 4.8% 4.1% 1.9% 0.3%
Zeke Horowitz 7.4% 8.2% 7.4% 8.0% 9.5% 8.1% 7.0% 7.4% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 5.5% 3.3% 2.8% 3.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0%
Clark Hayes 9.4% 7.6% 7.6% 8.3% 8.1% 8.9% 7.9% 8.7% 8.0% 5.3% 6.5% 4.2% 3.8% 2.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Scott Hoffmann 4.5% 4.2% 4.6% 4.3% 5.1% 4.2% 5.7% 6.6% 7.0% 5.9% 7.0% 6.8% 8.4% 6.9% 7.8% 5.5% 4.4% 1.1%
Benjamin Pedrick 2.3% 2.0% 3.2% 3.8% 3.1% 3.2% 4.7% 4.1% 5.5% 5.3% 5.8% 6.0% 8.9% 8.6% 9.7% 11.4% 9.2% 3.2%
Mildred Conroy 1.8% 1.6% 2.3% 1.9% 1.9% 2.8% 2.5% 3.2% 2.8% 4.1% 3.8% 6.3% 5.8% 8.3% 9.0% 14.2% 20.5% 7.2%
Andrew Kurzrok 3.1% 2.7% 1.6% 3.8% 3.1% 4.8% 5.3% 5.5% 4.6% 5.1% 5.1% 6.7% 6.8% 7.9% 11.1% 10.8% 9.1% 2.9%
Alden Sonnenfeldt 1.7% 1.3% 2.5% 2.2% 2.8% 1.6% 3.8% 3.2% 4.5% 4.2% 5.0% 6.3% 5.6% 9.3% 11.4% 13.0% 17.2% 4.4%
Daniel Perkins 5.2% 5.2% 5.7% 7.3% 7.4% 6.9% 8.4% 6.2% 6.5% 6.3% 7.9% 6.0% 6.3% 5.7% 3.5% 3.7% 1.3% 0.5%
Walker Banks 2.0% 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 2.8% 3.5% 2.0% 2.8% 3.1% 3.6% 4.1% 6.1% 7.1% 7.3% 10.8% 14.8% 19.2% 6.0%
Linda Codega 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9% 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 1.9% 2.9% 4.0% 9.2% 73.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.