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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1San Diego State University2.27+5.00vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.20+4.56vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+7.82vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+3.62vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+1.50vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.20+0.96vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.28-0.57vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.54+1.85vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.82-1.86vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+4.72vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy1.92-3.09vs Predicted
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12California State University Channel Islands0.82-0.25vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California1.71-4.13vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University0.16-0.44vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley0.86-3.43vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego1.30-6.44vs Predicted
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17University of Washington1.07-7.06vs Predicted
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18University of Washington-0.29-2.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.0San Diego State University2.2710.9%1st Place
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6.56Georgetown University2.209.8%1st Place
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10.82U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.402.8%1st Place
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7.62University of California at Santa Barbara1.357.8%1st Place
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6.5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.579.3%1st Place
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6.96Boston College2.209.0%1st Place
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6.43Tulane University2.2810.4%1st Place
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9.85Fordham University1.544.7%1st Place
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7.14George Washington University1.827.3%1st Place
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14.72Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.271.2%1st Place
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7.91California Poly Maritime Academy1.926.9%1st Place
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11.75California State University Channel Islands0.822.2%1st Place
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8.87University of Southern California1.715.1%1st Place
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13.56Northwestern University0.160.9%1st Place
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11.57University of California at Berkeley0.862.4%1st Place
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9.56University of California at San Diego1.303.9%1st Place
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9.94University of Washington1.074.2%1st Place
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15.23University of Washington-0.291.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Nyenhuis | 10.9% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Diego Escobar | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 2.8% |
| Jasper Reid | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 9.3% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Kirkman | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Holthus | 10.4% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Thress | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 1.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Groom | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 11.9% | 17.9% | 31.1% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Sterling Maggard | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 5.5% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Grace Bray | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 14.1% | 18.6% | 14.7% |
| Carsten Zieger | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 4.5% |
| Allie Shand | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Lucien Freemesser | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 1.4% |
| Stephanie Seto | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 19.4% | 36.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.