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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.74+3.67vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.80+5.86vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45+2.52vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.93+3.11vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.56+3.47vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.67+2.16vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.30+2.60vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.90+3.02vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.53-0.38vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.48+2.86vs Predicted
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11Washington College2.29+2.27vs Predicted
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12Boston University3.63-3.39vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy4.09-6.52vs Predicted
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14Boston College3.50-5.45vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia0.55+1.97vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College2.43-3.11vs Predicted
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17Yale University2.77-5.24vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont3.51-9.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.67Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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7.86St. Mary's College of Maryland3.800.1%1st Place
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5.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
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7.11College of Charleston3.930.1%1st Place
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8.47St. Mary's College of Maryland3.560.1%1st Place
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8.16Harvard University3.670.1%1st Place
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9.6Old Dominion University3.300.0%1st Place
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11.02Stanford University2.900.0%1st Place
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8.62U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.530.0%1st Place
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12.86Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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13.27Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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8.61Boston University3.630.1%1st Place
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6.48U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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8.55Boston College3.500.1%1st Place
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16.97University of Virginia0.550.0%1st Place
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12.89Eckerd College2.430.0%1st Place
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11.76Yale University2.770.0%1st Place
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8.58University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Barnard | 16.7% | 16.2% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Megan Magill | 5.5% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| David Thompson | 11.8% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zeke Horowitz | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Frederick Whitman | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Emily Lambert | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Scott Hoffmann | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 0.6% |
| Benjamin Pedrick | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 2.0% |
| Jonathan Duffett | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 2.5% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 14.4% | 18.4% | 5.2% |
| Mildred Conroy | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 11.4% | 16.1% | 19.1% | 8.6% |
| Daniel Perkins | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Clark Hayes | 9.1% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Emily Maxwell | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Linda Codega | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 10.4% | 72.4% |
| Walker Banks | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 18.2% | 6.0% |
| Andrew Kurzrok | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 3.8% |
| Jordan Factor | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.