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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.20+5.49vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.54+7.81vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.20+3.88vs Predicted
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4Tulane University2.28+2.43vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+2.66vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.71+2.75vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.82+0.01vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-1.92vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+1.64vs Predicted
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10California State University Channel Islands0.82+1.81vs Predicted
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11San Diego State University2.27-5.17vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego1.30-2.57vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+1.43vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley0.86-2.43vs Predicted
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15University of Washington1.07-5.12vs Predicted
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16University of Washington-0.29-0.97vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara1.22-7.30vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University0.16-4.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.49Georgetown University2.2010.7%1st Place
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9.81Fordham University1.543.8%1st Place
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6.88Boston College2.208.1%1st Place
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6.43Tulane University2.289.8%1st Place
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7.66California Poly Maritime Academy1.927.7%1st Place
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8.75University of Southern California1.715.0%1st Place
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7.01George Washington University1.828.6%1st Place
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6.08St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.8%1st Place
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10.64U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.403.9%1st Place
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11.81California State University Channel Islands0.821.9%1st Place
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5.83San Diego State University2.2711.6%1st Place
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9.43University of California at San Diego1.304.9%1st Place
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14.43Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.271.1%1st Place
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11.57University of California at Berkeley0.862.5%1st Place
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9.88University of Washington1.073.6%1st Place
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15.03University of Washington-0.291.1%1st Place
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9.7University of California at Santa Barbara1.223.9%1st Place
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13.57Northwestern University0.161.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Escobar | 10.7% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Thress | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Michael Kirkman | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Holthus | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Tyler Wood | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.8% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 3.5% |
| Sterling Maggard | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 6.8% |
| Noah Nyenhuis | 11.6% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Allie Shand | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Samuel Groom | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 12.8% | 18.2% | 26.2% |
| Carsten Zieger | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 4.9% |
| Lucien Freemesser | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| Stephanie Seto | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 10.7% | 17.9% | 36.5% |
| Thomas Erisman | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Grace Bray | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 18.1% | 15.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.