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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University2.28+5.27vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.24vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.20+3.52vs Predicted
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4San Diego State University2.27+1.96vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+5.59vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+1.73vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.20-0.10vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego1.30+1.71vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.82-2.09vs Predicted
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10University of Washington1.07-0.01vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley0.86+0.27vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.54-2.37vs Predicted
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13Northwestern University0.16+0.38vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands0.82-2.18vs Predicted
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15University of Washington-0.29+0.18vs Predicted
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16University of Southern California1.71-7.30vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara1.22-7.50vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27-3.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.27Tulane University2.2810.8%1st Place
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6.24St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.1%1st Place
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6.52Georgetown University2.209.8%1st Place
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5.96San Diego State University2.2710.2%1st Place
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10.59U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.403.0%1st Place
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7.73California Poly Maritime Academy1.927.2%1st Place
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6.9Boston College2.209.2%1st Place
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9.71University of California at San Diego1.304.0%1st Place
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6.91George Washington University1.829.5%1st Place
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9.99University of Washington1.073.6%1st Place
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11.27University of California at Berkeley0.862.2%1st Place
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9.63Fordham University1.544.2%1st Place
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13.38Northwestern University0.161.7%1st Place
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11.82California State University Channel Islands0.822.4%1st Place
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15.18University of Washington-0.290.8%1st Place
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8.7University of Southern California1.715.4%1st Place
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9.5University of California at Santa Barbara1.224.8%1st Place
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14.69Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.271.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holthus | 10.8% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.1% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Diego Escobar | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Noah Nyenhuis | 10.2% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 2.7% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Michael Kirkman | 9.2% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Allie Shand | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Lucien Freemesser | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Carsten Zieger | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 4.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| Grace Bray | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 14.6% | 16.7% | 15.0% |
| Sterling Maggard | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 5.4% |
| Stephanie Seto | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 9.8% | 18.9% | 37.5% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Thomas Erisman | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| Samuel Groom | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 19.7% | 29.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.