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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University2.28+5.39vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.20+4.88vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+7.51vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+2.47vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.20+1.55vs Predicted
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6San Diego State University2.27-0.18vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.54+2.73vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy1.92-0.05vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+5.71vs Predicted
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10California State University Channel Islands0.82+1.41vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego1.30-1.27vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara1.35-4.56vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.82-6.00vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California0.90-3.30vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley0.86-3.65vs Predicted
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16Northwestern University0.16-2.57vs Predicted
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17University of Washington1.07-7.23vs Predicted
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18University of Washington-0.29-2.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.39Tulane University2.289.3%1st Place
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6.88Boston College2.209.3%1st Place
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10.51U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.403.5%1st Place
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6.47St. Mary's College of Maryland2.579.9%1st Place
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6.55Georgetown University2.209.4%1st Place
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5.82San Diego State University2.2712.1%1st Place
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9.73Fordham University1.544.1%1st Place
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7.95California Poly Maritime Academy1.925.9%1st Place
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14.71Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.270.6%1st Place
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11.41California State University Channel Islands0.823.4%1st Place
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9.73University of California at San Diego1.304.0%1st Place
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7.44University of California at Santa Barbara1.357.3%1st Place
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7.0George Washington University1.828.2%1st Place
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10.7University of Southern California0.903.2%1st Place
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11.35University of California at Berkeley0.862.9%1st Place
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13.43Northwestern University0.161.6%1st Place
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9.77University of Washington1.074.4%1st Place
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15.15University of Washington-0.291.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holthus | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Michael Kirkman | 9.3% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 2.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Diego Escobar | 9.4% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Noah Nyenhuis | 12.1% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 1.1% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Samuel Groom | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 19.8% | 28.5% |
| Sterling Maggard | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 4.6% |
| Allie Shand | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| Jasper Reid | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Morgana Manti | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 2.1% |
| Carsten Zieger | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 4.6% |
| Grace Bray | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 14.8% | 17.1% |
| Lucien Freemesser | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Stephanie Seto | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 11.3% | 19.2% | 36.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.