← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+5.35vs Predicted
-
2Tulane University2.28+4.38vs Predicted
-
3Fordham University1.54+6.97vs Predicted
-
4Boston College2.20+2.91vs Predicted
-
5San Diego State University2.27+0.98vs Predicted
-
6Georgetown University2.20+0.71vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+3.65vs Predicted
-
8George Washington University1.82-0.97vs Predicted
-
9California Poly Maritime Academy1.92-1.26vs Predicted
-
10University of California at San Diego1.30-0.41vs Predicted
-
11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+3.57vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Berkeley0.86-0.42vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Santa Barbara1.35-5.74vs Predicted
-
14University of Washington1.07-4.27vs Predicted
-
15University of Southern California0.90-4.58vs Predicted
-
16Northwestern University0.16-2.46vs Predicted
-
17California State University Channel Islands0.82-5.40vs Predicted
-
18University of Washington-0.29-2.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.35St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.3%1st Place
-
6.38Tulane University2.2810.5%1st Place
-
9.97Fordham University1.544.1%1st Place
-
6.91Boston College2.206.9%1st Place
-
5.98San Diego State University2.2711.6%1st Place
-
6.71Georgetown University2.208.8%1st Place
-
10.65U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.403.0%1st Place
-
7.03George Washington University1.828.7%1st Place
-
7.74California Poly Maritime Academy1.926.8%1st Place
-
9.59University of California at San Diego1.304.8%1st Place
-
14.57Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.271.8%1st Place
-
11.58University of California at Berkeley0.862.4%1st Place
-
7.26University of California at Santa Barbara1.357.8%1st Place
-
9.73University of Washington1.073.3%1st Place
-
10.42University of Southern California0.903.8%1st Place
-
13.54Northwestern University0.161.7%1st Place
-
11.6California State University Channel Islands0.822.6%1st Place
-
15.01University of Washington-0.291.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Holthus | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Michael Kirkman | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Noah Nyenhuis | 11.6% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Diego Escobar | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 2.5% |
| Tyler Wood | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Allie Shand | 4.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Samuel Groom | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 11.4% | 18.4% | 30.0% |
| Carsten Zieger | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 5.0% |
| Jasper Reid | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Lucien Freemesser | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Morgana Manti | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 1.8% |
| Grace Bray | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 14.0% | 18.1% | 14.5% |
| Sterling Maggard | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 5.3% |
| Stephanie Seto | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 11.2% | 18.4% | 35.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.