Race 5B

st-mary-fall

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Chris Barnard 15.3% 16.0% 13.5% 12.4% 8.6% 8.8% 6.9% 5.5% 3.4% 3.5% 2.3% 2.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Frederick Whitman 4.3% 3.9% 5.1% 6.9% 6.0% 6.8% 6.7% 7.3% 7.1% 8.0% 5.8% 9.1% 6.0% 7.0% 4.1% 3.6% 1.9% 0.4%
Megan Magill 6.0% 6.8% 5.7% 7.0% 7.7% 6.8% 7.7% 8.7% 6.8% 7.4% 6.4% 6.6% 6.2% 4.8% 2.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
David Thompson 13.7% 12.4% 12.6% 10.6% 8.4% 8.1% 8.6% 6.3% 5.2% 3.9% 4.2% 2.3% 1.4% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Zeke Horowitz 8.2% 8.9% 7.8% 7.6% 8.4% 8.4% 5.9% 7.2% 6.7% 6.6% 5.2% 4.9% 5.5% 3.1% 3.0% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0%
Emily Lambert 6.4% 4.7% 6.8% 6.5% 7.0% 6.5% 9.1% 7.0% 6.6% 7.3% 6.5% 6.0% 6.1% 3.5% 4.5% 3.5% 1.7% 0.3%
Jordan Factor 5.0% 5.0% 6.9% 5.1% 6.6% 6.6% 5.5% 5.4% 8.0% 8.2% 6.9% 6.7% 6.3% 6.5% 5.2% 3.6% 2.1% 0.4%
Jonathan Duffett 5.3% 6.4% 5.4% 5.9% 7.4% 5.6% 6.3% 6.8% 6.8% 6.9% 6.7% 4.6% 7.4% 6.3% 6.5% 3.9% 1.2% 0.6%
Emily Maxwell 4.7% 4.9% 6.2% 5.8% 6.0% 7.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.4% 7.3% 7.3% 8.0% 6.0% 6.3% 5.2% 4.4% 1.6% 0.2%
Scott Hoffmann 4.9% 3.7% 4.4% 3.9% 4.3% 5.0% 4.6% 6.7% 7.2% 6.8% 6.0% 8.3% 7.8% 6.6% 7.7% 7.1% 4.4% 0.6%
Mildred Conroy 2.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2.1% 1.6% 2.8% 2.5% 2.7% 2.3% 3.0% 4.7% 5.1% 5.2% 8.4% 9.7% 13.6% 23.1% 8.5%
Clark Hayes 8.3% 9.6% 8.6% 9.0% 7.8% 7.3% 6.7% 8.1% 6.8% 5.8% 6.6% 5.9% 3.1% 3.2% 2.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0%
Daniel Perkins 6.3% 6.3% 6.0% 5.6% 7.4% 7.1% 7.0% 7.5% 6.8% 6.6% 7.9% 5.7% 6.6% 4.9% 3.0% 3.4% 1.7% 0.2%
Benjamin Pedrick 2.9% 3.2% 2.6% 3.9% 4.8% 5.3% 5.3% 4.1% 5.5% 4.1% 6.1% 5.7% 7.9% 10.4% 9.9% 8.8% 8.0% 1.5%
Alden Sonnenfeldt 1.7% 1.5% 2.9% 2.4% 1.9% 2.6% 3.3% 2.7% 4.3% 4.5% 5.6% 5.4% 7.2% 7.2% 11.5% 14.4% 15.3% 5.6%
Walker Banks 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 2.1% 3.2% 2.1% 2.6% 3.2% 3.0% 4.3% 5.5% 5.1% 7.1% 8.7% 10.5% 13.9% 18.7% 5.1%
Linda Codega 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.8% 1.8% 1.1% 1.8% 2.5% 4.9% 8.7% 74.5%
Andrew Kurzrok 2.8% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 4.4% 4.2% 6.5% 5.4% 5.5% 6.1% 8.4% 9.7% 11.0% 10.3% 9.7% 2.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.