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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University4.19+1.23vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California2.93+2.48vs Predicted
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3California State University Monterey Bay0.61+7.63vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.95+0.48vs Predicted
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5University of California at Davis1.94+1.94vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego1.81+1.36vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii1.88+0.14vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.39+0.54vs Predicted
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9California State University Channel Islands2.77-4.08vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz1.12-0.71vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay0.61-0.37vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine1.35-3.49vs Predicted
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13Santa Clara University1.55-4.66vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley1.62-6.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.23Stanford University4.190.4%1st Place
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4.48University of Southern California2.930.1%1st Place
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10.63California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
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4.48University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.1%1st Place
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6.94University of California at Davis1.940.1%1st Place
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7.36University of California at San Diego1.810.0%1st Place
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7.14University of Hawaii1.880.1%1st Place
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8.54Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.390.0%1st Place
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4.92California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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9.29University of California at Santa Cruz1.120.0%1st Place
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10.63California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
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8.51University of California at Irvine1.350.0%1st Place
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8.34Santa Clara University1.550.0%1st Place
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8.14University of California at Berkeley1.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kieran Chung | 41.5% | 26.2% | 15.0% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Hecht | 11.1% | 13.7% | 14.0% | 16.6% | 14.0% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 1.0% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 17.0% | 37.3% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Long | 11.5% | 13.6% | 16.5% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Antonio Rojas Mayol | 5.4% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Hitchcock | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| David Cornella | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Dair | 9.6% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ian Spilman | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 15.1% | 18.9% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 1.0% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 17.0% | 37.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Weis | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Ale | 1.8% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 13.7% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Oakes | 2.3% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 6.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.