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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California2.93+3.40vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.70+0.75vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.95+1.37vs Predicted
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4California State University Channel Islands2.77+0.78vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine1.35+3.47vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego1.81+1.28vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz1.12+2.09vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis1.94-1.04vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay0.61+1.44vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay0.61+0.44vs Predicted
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11University of Hawaii1.88-3.89vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.39-3.70vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley1.31-4.15vs Predicted
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14Santa Clara University1.55-5.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.4University of Southern California2.930.1%1st Place
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2.75Stanford University3.700.3%1st Place
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4.37University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.1%1st Place
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4.78California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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8.47University of California at Irvine1.350.0%1st Place
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7.28University of California at San Diego1.810.1%1st Place
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9.09University of California at Santa Cruz1.120.0%1st Place
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6.96University of California at Davis1.940.1%1st Place
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10.44California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
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10.44California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
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7.11University of Hawaii1.880.1%1st Place
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8.3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.390.0%1st Place
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8.85University of California at Berkeley1.310.0%1st Place
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8.19Santa Clara University1.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Hecht | 14.2% | 14.5% | 12.2% | 14.7% | 12.5% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Antoine Screve | 31.4% | 23.7% | 16.0% | 12.9% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Long | 12.4% | 16.4% | 15.0% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Dair | 11.6% | 12.0% | 14.5% | 12.9% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Weis | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 5.5% | 4.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Ian Spilman | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 16.5% | 15.8% | 0.0% |
| Antonio Rojas Mayol | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 14.3% | 36.9% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 14.3% | 36.9% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Hitchcock | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| David Cornella | 2.5% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Henry Keenan | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 16.1% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Ale | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.