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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.95+3.40vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.70+0.81vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego1.81+4.50vs Predicted
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4California State University Channel Islands2.77+0.86vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California2.93-0.61vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine1.35+2.60vs Predicted
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7Santa Clara University1.55+1.05vs Predicted
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8University of Hawaii2.32-2.04vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz1.12+0.33vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.39-1.44vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay0.61-0.62vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley1.31-3.06vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis1.94-5.79vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay0.61-3.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.4University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.1%1st Place
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2.81Stanford University3.700.3%1st Place
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7.5University of California at San Diego1.810.0%1st Place
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4.86California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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4.39University of Southern California2.930.1%1st Place
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8.6University of California at Irvine1.350.0%1st Place
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8.05Santa Clara University1.550.0%1st Place
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5.96University of Hawaii2.320.1%1st Place
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9.33University of California at Santa Cruz1.120.0%1st Place
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8.56Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.390.0%1st Place
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10.38California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
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8.94University of California at Berkeley1.310.0%1st Place
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7.21University of California at Davis1.940.0%1st Place
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10.38California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Long | 14.1% | 13.5% | 14.8% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Antoine Screve | 30.9% | 21.9% | 18.5% | 12.0% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 3.5% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Dair | 11.0% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 13.5% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Hecht | 13.5% | 15.3% | 14.8% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Weis | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Ale | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| Giacomo Paoletti | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Spilman | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 15.9% | 18.1% | 0.0% |
| David Cornella | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 12.1% | 16.7% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Henry Keenan | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 16.4% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| Antonio Rojas Mayol | 3.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 12.1% | 16.7% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.