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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.95+3.36vs Predicted
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2California State University Monterey Bay0.61+8.47vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego1.81+4.49vs Predicted
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4University of California at Davis1.94+3.11vs Predicted
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5California State University Channel Islands2.77-0.27vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.70-3.12vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii2.32-1.05vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California2.93-3.60vs Predicted
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9Santa Clara University1.55-0.77vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley1.31-1.25vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay0.61-0.53vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine1.35-3.49vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.39-5.31vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Cruz1.12-5.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.36University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.1%1st Place
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10.47California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
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7.49University of California at San Diego1.810.0%1st Place
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7.11University of California at Davis1.940.0%1st Place
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4.73California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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2.88Stanford University3.700.3%1st Place
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5.95University of Hawaii2.320.1%1st Place
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4.4University of Southern California2.930.1%1st Place
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8.23Santa Clara University1.550.0%1st Place
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8.75University of California at Berkeley1.310.0%1st Place
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10.47California State University Monterey Bay0.610.0%1st Place
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8.51University of California at Irvine1.350.0%1st Place
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8.69Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.390.0%1st Place
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9.44University of California at Santa Cruz1.120.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Long | 13.7% | 15.2% | 14.2% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 17.2% | 35.6% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 4.1% | 3.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Antonio Rojas Mayol | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Dair | 12.4% | 13.6% | 13.0% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Antoine Screve | 30.3% | 21.8% | 16.8% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Giacomo Paoletti | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Hecht | 12.7% | 15.0% | 15.2% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Ale | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| Henry Keenan | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 13.5% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gibbons | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 17.2% | 35.6% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Weis | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 8.9% | 0.0% |
| David Cornella | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Spilman | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 16.2% | 18.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.