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📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.80+1.35vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California2.47+2.73vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.92+0.77vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara3.06-0.50vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine1.71+1.41vs Predicted
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6Santa Clara University1.42+1.22vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18+0.77vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis0.83+0.71vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay0.56+0.52vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-1.34vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay0.56-1.48vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.92-3.64vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.39-3.04vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands0.37-3.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.35Stanford University3.800.4%1st Place
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4.73University of Southern California2.470.1%1st Place
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3.77University of Hawaii2.920.1%1st Place
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3.5University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.2%1st Place
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6.41University of California at Irvine1.710.1%1st Place
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7.22Santa Clara University1.420.0%1st Place
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7.77Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.0%1st Place
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8.71University of California at Davis0.830.0%1st Place
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9.52California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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8.66University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.0%1st Place
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9.52California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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8.36University of California at Berkeley0.920.0%1st Place
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9.96University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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10.04California State University Channel Islands0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hans Henken | 37.7% | 25.8% | 17.0% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 9.1% | 11.4% | 12.9% | 15.5% | 16.0% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chuck Eaton | 14.7% | 18.7% | 17.3% | 13.9% | 14.2% | 10.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 18.8% | 17.9% | 18.7% | 16.2% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Heller | 5.0% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Cappellini | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Grace Carrick | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Baldassare | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 13.6% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Alex Verdoia | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Ian Markowitz | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 11.3% | 12.6% | 16.4% | 24.2% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Tedmori | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 17.9% | 23.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.