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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.80+1.27vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.92+1.65vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+1.08vs Predicted
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4University of California at Irvine1.71+2.52vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18+2.72vs Predicted
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6Santa Clara University1.42+1.18vs Predicted
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7California State University Monterey Bay0.56+2.30vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+0.62vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis0.83-0.20vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.92-1.50vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay0.56-1.70vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego0.39-2.32vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands0.37-4.00vs Predicted
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15University of Southern California2.47-10.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.27Stanford University3.800.4%1st Place
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3.65University of Hawaii2.920.2%1st Place
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4.08University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.1%1st Place
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6.52University of California at Irvine1.710.0%1st Place
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7.72Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.0%1st Place
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7.18Santa Clara University1.420.0%1st Place
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9.3California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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8.62University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.0%1st Place
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8.8University of California at Davis0.830.0%1st Place
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8.5University of California at Berkeley0.920.0%1st Place
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9.3California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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9.68University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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10.0California State University Channel Islands0.370.0%1st Place
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4.69University of Southern California2.470.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hans Henken | 40.4% | 24.8% | 17.8% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chuck Eaton | 16.3% | 19.0% | 19.4% | 14.6% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Henken | 13.0% | 16.0% | 16.1% | 15.4% | 14.0% | 10.6% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Heller | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Grace Carrick | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Cappellini | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 13.9% | 15.7% | 16.4% | 0.0% |
| Alex Verdoia | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Baldassare | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Ian Markowitz | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 13.9% | 15.7% | 16.4% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 13.5% | 16.1% | 19.3% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Tedmori | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 17.3% | 24.9% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 8.4% | 13.9% | 11.9% | 15.7% | 15.2% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.