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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.80+1.27vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+2.07vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.92+0.66vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.47+0.62vs Predicted
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5California State University Monterey Bay0.56+4.24vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine1.71+0.29vs Predicted
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7Santa Clara University1.42+0.05vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis0.83+0.66vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-0.51vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay0.56-0.76vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley0.92-2.59vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-3.65vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.39-3.09vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands0.37-5.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.27Stanford University3.800.4%1st Place
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4.07University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.1%1st Place
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3.66University of Hawaii2.920.2%1st Place
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4.62University of Southern California2.470.1%1st Place
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9.24California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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6.29University of California at Irvine1.710.0%1st Place
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7.05Santa Clara University1.420.1%1st Place
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8.66University of California at Davis0.830.0%1st Place
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8.49Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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9.24California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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8.41University of California at Berkeley0.920.0%1st Place
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8.35University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.0%1st Place
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9.91University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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9.98California State University Channel Islands0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hans Henken | 39.5% | 26.5% | 16.1% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Henken | 12.8% | 15.4% | 17.3% | 16.2% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chuck Eaton | 15.6% | 20.2% | 17.0% | 13.1% | 15.8% | 8.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 10.6% | 10.4% | 15.4% | 15.1% | 14.1% | 12.2% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 16.5% | 14.4% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Heller | 4.6% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Cappellini | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 13.4% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Baldassare | 1.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 13.7% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 16.5% | 14.4% | 0.0% |
| Ian Markowitz | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 0.0% |
| Alex Verdoia | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 16.6% | 23.7% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Tedmori | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 17.6% | 23.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.