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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.80+1.27vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.92+1.65vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+1.09vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.47+0.59vs Predicted
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5Santa Clara University1.42+2.03vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine1.71+0.29vs Predicted
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7California State University Monterey Bay0.56+2.23vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis0.83+0.62vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.92-0.45vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-1.41vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-2.79vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay0.56-2.77vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.39-3.09vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands0.37-5.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.27Stanford University3.800.4%1st Place
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3.65University of Hawaii2.920.2%1st Place
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4.09University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.1%1st Place
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4.59University of Southern California2.470.1%1st Place
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7.03Santa Clara University1.420.0%1st Place
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6.29University of California at Irvine1.710.0%1st Place
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9.23California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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8.62University of California at Davis0.830.0%1st Place
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8.55University of California at Berkeley0.920.0%1st Place
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8.59University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.0%1st Place
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8.21Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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9.23California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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9.91University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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9.98California State University Channel Islands0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hans Henken | 40.5% | 25.3% | 16.2% | 9.1% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chuck Eaton | 16.2% | 18.5% | 18.2% | 16.7% | 12.7% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Henken | 12.1% | 17.1% | 16.3% | 13.4% | 14.6% | 11.8% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 10.4% | 11.9% | 14.2% | 16.1% | 13.6% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Cappellini | 4.1% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Heller | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 12.5% | 17.2% | 14.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Baldassare | 1.7% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 0.0% |
| Ian Markowitz | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| Alex Verdoia | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 12.5% | 17.2% | 14.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 15.4% | 24.1% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Tedmori | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 17.4% | 23.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.