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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.51+5.70vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.67+4.15vs Predicted
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3Fordham University3.11+5.11vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.38+6.58vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+3.50vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.87+2.87vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08-2.39vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College3.25-0.66vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University2.24+2.18vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.74-4.02vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30-3.66vs Predicted
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12Villanova University1.15+2.89vs Predicted
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13Washington College2.45-2.70vs Predicted
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14Hampton University2.00-2.24vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia1.70-1.91vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.69-2.76vs Predicted
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17University of Buffalo0.75-1.32vs Predicted
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18George Washington University3.41-11.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.7Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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6.15Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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8.11Fordham University3.110.1%1st Place
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10.58Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
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8.5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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8.87University of Pennsylvania2.870.1%1st Place
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4.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.2%1st Place
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7.34SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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11.18Christopher Newport University2.240.0%1st Place
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5.98U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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7.34St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
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14.89Villanova University1.150.0%1st Place
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10.3Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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11.76Hampton University2.000.0%1st Place
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13.09University of Virginia1.700.0%1st Place
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13.24Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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15.68University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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6.68George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Post | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Augie Dale | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Connor Godfrey | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 4.1% | 2.4% |
| Andrew Bates | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Drew Gallagher | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 16.2% | 16.3% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Hill | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Xander Van Beurden | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 2.4% |
| Mary Hall | 11.6% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jacob La Dow | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| David Alldian | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 23.6% | 25.3% |
| Eric Siegel | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 1.2% |
| Cristina Ortiz Vivas | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 8.8% | 4.4% |
| Rodman Brown | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 12.4% | 10.2% |
| Alex Dzinbal | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 16.1% | 13.8% | 10.6% |
| Rory Mess | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 20.2% | 42.5% |
| Kai Friesecke | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.