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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.51+5.82vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.25+5.76vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.67+3.19vs Predicted
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4Fordham University3.11+3.96vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.74+0.83vs Predicted
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6George Washington University3.41+0.97vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.60-0.72vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.38+2.73vs Predicted
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9Hampton University2.28+2.17vs Predicted
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10Washington College2.45+0.81vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08-6.19vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-3.01vs Predicted
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13Villanova University1.15+1.62vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute1.69-1.04vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University2.24-3.76vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia1.70-2.72vs Predicted
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17University of Buffalo0.75-1.20vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania2.87-9.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.82Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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7.76SUNY Maritime College3.250.0%1st Place
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6.19Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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7.96Fordham University3.110.1%1st Place
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5.83U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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6.97George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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6.28St. Mary's College of Maryland3.600.1%1st Place
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10.73Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
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11.17Hampton University2.280.0%1st Place
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10.81Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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4.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.2%1st Place
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8.99U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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14.62Villanova University1.150.0%1st Place
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12.96Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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11.24Christopher Newport University2.240.0%1st Place
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13.28University of Virginia1.700.0%1st Place
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15.8University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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8.78University of Pennsylvania2.870.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Post | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Hill | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Augie Dale | 8.5% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Godfrey | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Mary Hall | 11.4% | 13.8% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 8.3% | 5.9% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Chase Quinn | 9.2% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 2.2% |
| Veronica Maccari | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 1.9% |
| Eric Siegel | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 1.3% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 16.5% | 14.6% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| David Alldian | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 13.6% | 20.0% | 26.0% |
| Alex Dzinbal | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 14.1% | 15.7% | 8.7% |
| Xander Van Beurden | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% |
| Rodman Brown | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 11.8% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 11.3% |
| Rory Mess | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 11.1% | 18.6% | 44.4% |
| Drew Gallagher | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.