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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University3.11+7.29vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.60+4.48vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+1.82vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.67+1.97vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.74+0.84vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+2.67vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.38+3.82vs Predicted
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8George Washington University3.41-1.14vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College3.25-1.57vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University3.51-3.16vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.87-1.92vs Predicted
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12Washington College2.45-1.17vs Predicted
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13Hampton University2.28-1.88vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute1.69-1.08vs Predicted
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15University of Buffalo0.75+0.72vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University2.24-4.62vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia1.70-3.71vs Predicted
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18Villanova University1.15-3.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.29Fordham University3.110.1%1st Place
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6.48St. Mary's College of Maryland3.600.1%1st Place
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4.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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5.97Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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5.84U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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8.67U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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10.82Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
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6.86George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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7.43SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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6.84Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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9.08University of Pennsylvania2.870.1%1st Place
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10.83Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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11.12Hampton University2.280.0%1st Place
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12.92Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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15.72University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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11.38Christopher Newport University2.240.0%1st Place
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13.29University of Virginia1.700.0%1st Place
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14.65Villanova University1.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Godfrey | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Chase Quinn | 7.1% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 14.4% | 14.5% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Augie Dale | 11.3% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Mary Hall | 11.5% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| Kai Friesecke | 7.5% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Hill | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Alex Post | 9.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Drew Gallagher | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Eric Siegel | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 1.5% |
| Veronica Maccari | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 2.3% |
| Alex Dzinbal | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 12.7% | 10.2% |
| Rory Mess | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 18.2% | 44.1% |
| Xander Van Beurden | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 6.9% | 3.7% |
| Rodman Brown | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 15.3% | 14.2% | 11.4% |
| David Alldian | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 23.0% | 23.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.