← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Georgetown University3.51+5.84vs Predicted
-
2Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+2.88vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Naval Academy3.74+2.98vs Predicted
-
4SUNY Maritime College3.25+3.50vs Predicted
-
5Christopher Newport University2.24+6.21vs Predicted
-
6Fordham University3.11+2.13vs Predicted
-
7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.60-0.72vs Predicted
-
8George Washington University3.49-1.43vs Predicted
-
9University of Pennsylvania2.87+0.01vs Predicted
-
10Old Dominion University3.67-3.72vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-2.14vs Predicted
-
12Villanova University1.15+3.04vs Predicted
-
13Cornell University2.38-2.35vs Predicted
-
14Webb Institute1.69-1.05vs Predicted
-
15Hampton University2.28-3.83vs Predicted
-
16University of Virginia1.70-2.63vs Predicted
-
17Washington College2.45-6.29vs Predicted
-
18University of Buffalo0.75-2.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.84Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
-
4.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
-
5.98U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
-
7.5SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
-
11.21Christopher Newport University2.240.0%1st Place
-
8.13Fordham University3.110.1%1st Place
-
6.28St. Mary's College of Maryland3.600.1%1st Place
-
6.57George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
-
9.01University of Pennsylvania2.870.0%1st Place
-
6.28Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
-
8.86U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
-
15.04Villanova University1.150.0%1st Place
-
10.65Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
-
12.95Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
-
11.17Hampton University2.280.0%1st Place
-
13.37University of Virginia1.700.0%1st Place
-
10.71Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
-
15.56University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Post | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 12.8% | 14.0% | 12.6% | 13.6% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mary Hall | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Hill | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Xander Van Beurden | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 2.4% |
| Connor Godfrey | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Chase Quinn | 9.3% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Drew Gallagher | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Augie Dale | 10.8% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| David Alldian | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 20.4% | 29.7% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| Alex Dzinbal | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 13.4% | 14.8% | 9.9% |
| Veronica Maccari | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 5.1% | 2.7% |
| Rodman Brown | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 14.5% | 17.2% | 10.2% |
| Eric Siegel | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 1.1% |
| Rory Mess | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 18.7% | 40.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.