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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College1.39+2.86vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College1.47+1.66vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College-0.25+5.27vs Predicted
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4Boston University-0.22+4.15vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University0.70+0.50vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College1.46-2.32vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont0.36-0.58vs Predicted
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8Maine Maritime Academy-1.01+2.23vs Predicted
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9Boston College0.05-1.62vs Predicted
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10Bentley University-0.45-0.87vs Predicted
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11Boston University-0.04-3.37vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College-0.42-3.42vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.62-1.22vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire-1.73-1.94vs Predicted
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15Bates College-2.67-1.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.86Bowdoin College1.3918.7%1st Place
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3.66Bowdoin College1.4717.0%1st Place
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8.27Bowdoin College-0.254.0%1st Place
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8.15Boston University-0.223.8%1st Place
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5.5Northeastern University0.7010.1%1st Place
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3.68Dartmouth College1.4619.9%1st Place
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6.42University of Vermont0.367.0%1st Place
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10.23Maine Maritime Academy-1.011.8%1st Place
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7.38Boston College0.055.1%1st Place
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9.13Bentley University-0.452.5%1st Place
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7.63Boston University-0.044.2%1st Place
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8.58Dartmouth College-0.423.5%1st Place
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11.78Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.621.4%1st Place
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12.06University of New Hampshire-1.730.8%1st Place
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13.66Bates College-2.670.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Keenan | 18.7% | 17.1% | 15.6% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Ladd | 17.0% | 20.3% | 16.2% | 15.2% | 12.1% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Warren | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| Harrison Stevens | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 0.5% |
| Jeremy Bullock | 10.1% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Harry Bryan | 19.9% | 17.6% | 16.9% | 14.5% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Marco Welch | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Herlihy | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 14.3% | 15.2% | 11.5% | 5.1% |
| Kennedy Laureigh | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| John O'Connell | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 5.5% | 1.8% |
| Graham Welsh | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Brooklyn Verplank | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Colin Shearley | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 11.5% | 19.1% | 23.5% | 14.6% |
| Peter Huntley-Robertson | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 15.4% | 27.5% | 17.7% |
| Logan Ray | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 8.2% | 17.2% | 57.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.