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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45+3.79vs Predicted
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2University of South Florida2.21+6.44vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.21+2.50vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.87+2.60vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston2.73+2.12vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.92+3.66vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.46-2.41vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island3.37-2.92vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.51-1.22vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-3.96vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara2.06-1.87vs Predicted
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12University of Minnesota2.13-3.10vs Predicted
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13University of Oregon1.18-1.60vs Predicted
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14University of Hawaii1.74-4.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.79U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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8.44University of South Florida2.210.0%1st Place
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5.5Dartmouth College3.210.1%1st Place
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6.6Brown University2.870.1%1st Place
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7.12College of Charleston2.730.1%1st Place
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9.66Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.920.0%1st Place
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4.59Georgetown University3.460.2%1st Place
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5.08University of Rhode Island3.370.1%1st Place
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7.78George Washington University2.510.1%1st Place
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6.04St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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9.13University of California at Santa Barbara2.060.0%1st Place
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8.9University of Minnesota2.130.0%1st Place
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11.4University of Oregon1.180.0%1st Place
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9.96University of Hawaii1.740.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dana Rohde | 14.2% | 14.6% | 13.8% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Madison Gates | 3.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 6.6% |
| Sarah Williams | 11.7% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Kelly McGlynn | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Elizabeth Pemberton | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| Christine Moloney | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 13.6% | 14.5% |
| Katia DaSilva | 16.2% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sarah Hermus | 13.0% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Maria Sinagra | 6.6% | 3.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 3.5% |
| Carolyn Smith | 9.2% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Olivia Godfrey | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 9.9% |
| Alison Kent | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.1% |
| Rachel Day | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 10.7% | 18.0% | 37.7% |
| Caitlin Schadt | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 13.3% | 18.5% | 14.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.