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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.73+5.59vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.23+6.04vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45+1.46vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.51+3.39vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.20+0.33vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.74+0.80vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-1.58vs Predicted
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8University of Minnesota2.13+0.53vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida2.24-0.70vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College3.21-4.85vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara2.06-2.15vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.92-2.75vs Predicted
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13University of Hawaii1.74-3.33vs Predicted
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14University of Oregon1.18-2.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.59College of Charleston2.730.1%1st Place
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8.04University of Rhode Island2.230.0%1st Place
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4.46U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.2%1st Place
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7.39George Washington University2.510.1%1st Place
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5.33Brown University3.200.1%1st Place
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6.8Georgetown University2.740.1%1st Place
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5.42St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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8.53University of Minnesota2.130.1%1st Place
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8.3University of South Florida2.240.1%1st Place
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5.15Dartmouth College3.210.1%1st Place
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8.85University of California at Santa Barbara2.060.0%1st Place
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9.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.920.0%1st Place
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9.67University of Hawaii1.740.0%1st Place
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11.22University of Oregon1.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Pemberton | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Mackenzie Needham | 4.1% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 5.0% |
| Dana Rohde | 17.2% | 15.4% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Maria Sinagra | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 3.8% |
| Lindsey Baab | 11.0% | 11.6% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Mary Kate Mezzetti | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 1.7% |
| Carolyn Smith | 12.4% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Alison Kent | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 7.9% |
| Alison Knoles | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 5.1% |
| Sarah Williams | 12.3% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Olivia Godfrey | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.4% |
| Christine Moloney | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 12.1% |
| Caitlin Schadt | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 15.7% | 15.1% |
| Rachel Day | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 10.1% | 15.7% | 36.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.