Race 5A

sperry-women-west-semis

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Laura Wefer 6.6% 6.0% 7.1% 9.0% 9.3% 8.6% 9.8% 11.8% 11.4% 10.2% 7.1% 2.8% 0.3%
Lily Katz 10.3% 12.6% 12.6% 10.7% 9.5% 12.1% 9.8% 8.7% 6.4% 5.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
Morgan Kiss 19.0% 16.4% 13.6% 13.0% 12.6% 8.1% 7.5% 4.9% 3.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Erika Reineke 16.9% 16.5% 15.3% 12.9% 11.0% 8.8% 6.5% 5.5% 4.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Erin Mullins 7.8% 7.0% 7.3% 9.1% 7.9% 9.3% 10.1% 10.6% 10.9% 10.4% 6.8% 2.6% 0.2%
Mary Hall 13.4% 13.3% 14.4% 11.1% 10.4% 10.5% 8.1% 7.1% 5.9% 4.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Jasmine Gerraty 0.4% 0.7% 1.0% 0.8% 1.2% 1.6% 1.6% 1.3% 2.7% 4.4% 13.1% 26.0% 45.2%
Andrea Luna 5.5% 7.4% 6.7% 7.0% 8.4% 9.1% 10.5% 10.9% 12.7% 11.7% 6.9% 2.9% 0.3%
Megan Yeigh 5.6% 6.6% 7.1% 7.7% 8.2% 8.7% 11.6% 11.0% 10.5% 10.6% 9.5% 2.6% 0.3%
Melany Johnson 8.0% 7.2% 6.9% 9.7% 10.1% 9.1% 11.3% 10.0% 9.6% 10.6% 5.2% 2.2% 0.1%
Francesca Cappellini 1.2% 0.9% 1.3% 2.0% 1.7% 3.5% 3.2% 5.5% 5.9% 10.8% 27.1% 25.8% 11.1%
Noel Ingalls 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.2% 2.5% 2.4% 5.4% 10.4% 31.2% 41.6%
Jennifer Borshoff 4.9% 4.6% 6.4% 6.2% 8.2% 9.1% 8.8% 10.2% 14.3% 13.4% 10.0% 3.1% 0.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.