Race 11A

sperry-women-west-semis

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Erika Reineke 16.9% 16.5% 13.6% 12.5% 11.5% 10.7% 7.4% 5.0% 3.0% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Melany Johnson 6.7% 6.1% 9.7% 8.2% 8.7% 12.5% 9.7% 10.2% 10.6% 9.8% 6.0% 1.4% 0.4%
Morgan Kiss 18.0% 17.3% 14.1% 13.0% 12.3% 10.0% 6.0% 5.2% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Laura Wefer 6.0% 6.0% 7.9% 8.9% 9.2% 8.7% 10.2% 10.5% 12.0% 10.9% 7.5% 1.8% 0.4%
Andrea Luna 7.1% 5.8% 7.0% 8.1% 9.2% 9.0% 8.9% 11.4% 12.6% 10.7% 7.0% 2.9% 0.3%
Lily Katz 11.3% 13.9% 10.5% 12.3% 11.4% 10.0% 8.9% 7.8% 6.9% 4.5% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Erin Mullins 7.4% 6.9% 8.8% 7.3% 8.6% 9.0% 10.5% 11.7% 10.9% 10.9% 5.4% 2.4% 0.2%
Megan Yeigh 5.7% 7.6% 6.1% 8.4% 8.4% 8.7% 10.8% 11.0% 12.4% 12.5% 6.1% 2.1% 0.2%
Jennifer Borshoff 5.6% 5.5% 5.6% 7.1% 7.1% 7.8% 10.6% 11.8% 12.0% 11.7% 11.5% 3.2% 0.5%
Mary Hall 13.3% 12.4% 14.5% 11.6% 9.2% 10.0% 10.2% 6.8% 4.9% 5.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Noel Ingalls 0.5% 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 1.0% 1.6% 3.8% 2.8% 5.2% 15.0% 33.5% 34.4%
Jasmine Gerraty 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 1.0% 1.2% 1.9% 0.5% 2.9% 5.0% 11.8% 25.1% 48.7%
Francesca Cappellini 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.5% 2.7% 1.4% 3.3% 4.3% 6.2% 10.3% 25.6% 26.4% 14.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.