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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College1.39+2.78vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College1.46+1.66vs Predicted
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3Boston University-0.04+4.64vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University0.70+1.51vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College1.47-1.33vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College-0.25+2.23vs Predicted
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7Boston College0.05+0.24vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College-0.42+0.77vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont0.36-2.67vs Predicted
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10Bentley University-0.45-0.97vs Predicted
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11Maine Maritime Academy-1.01-0.57vs Predicted
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12Boston University-0.22-3.88vs Predicted
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13Bates College-2.67+0.65vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.62-2.09vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire-1.73-2.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.78Bowdoin College1.3919.1%1st Place
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3.66Dartmouth College1.4620.2%1st Place
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7.64Boston University-0.044.5%1st Place
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5.51Northeastern University0.7010.0%1st Place
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3.67Bowdoin College1.4720.2%1st Place
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8.23Bowdoin College-0.253.5%1st Place
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7.24Boston College0.055.3%1st Place
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8.77Dartmouth College-0.422.4%1st Place
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6.33University of Vermont0.365.5%1st Place
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9.03Bentley University-0.452.0%1st Place
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10.43Maine Maritime Academy-1.011.8%1st Place
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8.12Boston University-0.223.8%1st Place
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13.65Bates College-2.670.2%1st Place
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11.91Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.620.6%1st Place
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12.03University of New Hampshire-1.730.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Keenan | 19.1% | 17.2% | 15.3% | 13.7% | 12.4% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harry Bryan | 20.2% | 16.7% | 16.6% | 14.5% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Graham Welsh | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Jeremy Bullock | 10.0% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Henry Ladd | 20.2% | 17.3% | 16.4% | 14.1% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Warren | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 0.7% |
| Kennedy Laureigh | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Brooklyn Verplank | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 4.2% | 0.9% |
| Marco Welch | 5.5% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| John O'Connell | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 5.5% | 1.5% |
| Joshua Herlihy | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 14.7% | 15.6% | 13.1% | 5.3% |
| Harrison Stevens | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 0.3% |
| Logan Ray | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 8.5% | 17.9% | 56.9% |
| Colin Shearley | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 18.1% | 25.1% | 15.4% |
| Peter Huntley-Robertson | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 11.0% | 17.2% | 24.2% | 18.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.