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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.89+5.15vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.79+4.43vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+3.90vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii2.32+7.70vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.44+2.53vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University2.54+5.11vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan1.93+6.20vs Predicted
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8Tufts University3.41-0.44vs Predicted
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9Boston College3.92-3.28vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University3.51-2.44vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College3.25-2.60vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24-3.26vs Predicted
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13Eckerd College3.14-4.37vs Predicted
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14Washington University2.25-2.16vs Predicted
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15Fordham University3.11-6.16vs Predicted
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16University of British Columbia1.14-0.53vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara2.72-6.47vs Predicted
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18Texas A&M University at Galveston1.39-3.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.15College of Charleston3.890.1%1st Place
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6.43Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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6.9U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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11.7University of Hawaii2.320.0%1st Place
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7.53U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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11.11Jacksonville University2.540.0%1st Place
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13.2University of Michigan1.930.0%1st Place
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7.56Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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5.72Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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7.56Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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8.4SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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8.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.1%1st Place
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8.63Eckerd College3.140.1%1st Place
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11.84Washington University2.250.0%1st Place
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8.84Fordham University3.110.1%1st Place
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15.47University of British Columbia1.140.0%1st Place
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10.53University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.0%1st Place
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14.71Texas A&M University at Galveston1.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rees | 10.5% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 8.2% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nikole Barnes | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Giacomo Paoletti | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 4.8% |
| Michael Popp | 7.1% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Ian Ikeda | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 3.8% |
| Christopher Cyr | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 13.9% | 16.2% | 12.2% |
| Dan Nickerson | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| William Bailey | 12.1% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Post | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Zachary Hill | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Eddie Cox | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Melany Johnson | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Nathan Ross | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 5.4% |
| Connor Godfrey | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Joseph Gustafson | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 10.4% | 17.0% | 42.0% |
| Sterling Henken | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 2.5% |
| Alexander Thompson | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 21.6% | 26.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.