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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+5.49vs Predicted
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2Stanford University4.19+3.52vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania3.16+6.13vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.95+2.07vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.82+1.53vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+2.12vs Predicted
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7Yale University4.55-2.67vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College3.18+0.73vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin3.36-0.83vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida3.49-2.06vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.64-3.67vs Predicted
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12University of Florida2.20+0.47vs Predicted
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13Oregon State University1.47+1.16vs Predicted
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14University of Minnesota2.01-1.41vs Predicted
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15University of Notre Dame2.27-2.99vs Predicted
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16University of Southern California2.93-6.17vs Predicted
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17Tulane University1.34-2.33vs Predicted
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18University of Texas-0.02-1.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.49St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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5.52Stanford University4.190.1%1st Place
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9.13University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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6.07Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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6.53Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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8.12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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4.33Yale University4.550.2%1st Place
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8.73Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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8.17University of Wisconsin3.360.0%1st Place
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7.94University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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7.33Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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12.47University of Florida2.200.0%1st Place
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14.16Oregon State University1.470.0%1st Place
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12.59University of Minnesota2.010.0%1st Place
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12.01University of Notre Dame2.270.0%1st Place
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9.83University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
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14.67Tulane University1.340.0%1st Place
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16.9University of Texas-0.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Curtiss | 9.4% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Chung | 9.8% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| William Macdonald | 10.6% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 9.0% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Graham Landy | 17.3% | 17.1% | 13.8% | 12.2% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack McGuire | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 4.8% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stocke | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Adams | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Famiglietti | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 14.4% | 13.4% | 10.5% | 3.3% |
| Cody Odou | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 17.0% | 24.3% | 9.7% |
| Emily Oltrogge | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 14.3% | 15.5% | 10.9% | 3.5% |
| Mike Flanigan | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 14.1% | 12.2% | 8.7% | 1.0% |
| Matthew Hecht | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Nick Watts | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 10.5% | 18.9% | 27.7% | 12.4% |
| William Cragin | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 12.1% | 69.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.