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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.55+3.51vs Predicted
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2University of Wisconsin3.36+6.39vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.82+3.74vs Predicted
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4University of Florida2.20+8.08vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.95+1.14vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida3.49+1.79vs Predicted
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7Oregon State University1.47+7.29vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania3.16+0.83vs Predicted
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9University of Minnesota2.01+3.86vs Predicted
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10Brown University3.64-2.53vs Predicted
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11Stanford University4.19-5.55vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California2.93-1.93vs Predicted
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13University of Notre Dame2.27-1.14vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-6.17vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College3.18-6.20vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91-9.65vs Predicted
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17University of Texas-0.02+0.05vs Predicted
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18Tulane University1.34-3.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.51Yale University4.550.2%1st Place
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8.39University of Wisconsin3.360.0%1st Place
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6.74Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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12.08University of Florida2.200.0%1st Place
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6.14Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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7.79University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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14.29Oregon State University1.470.0%1st Place
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8.83University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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12.86University of Minnesota2.010.0%1st Place
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7.47Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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5.45Stanford University4.190.1%1st Place
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10.07University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
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11.86University of Notre Dame2.270.0%1st Place
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7.83U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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8.8Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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6.35St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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17.05University of Texas-0.020.0%1st Place
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14.49Tulane University1.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Landy | 16.9% | 15.1% | 14.1% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 5.5% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Famiglietti | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 12.7% | 9.1% | 2.5% |
| William Macdonald | 10.6% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stocke | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Cody Odou | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 10.2% | 19.9% | 25.0% | 10.3% |
| Jack Swikart | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Emily Oltrogge | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 12.5% | 13.1% | 15.3% | 11.9% | 3.9% |
| Lucas Adams | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Chung | 13.3% | 12.3% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Hecht | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Mike Flanigan | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 7.5% | 1.7% |
| Charles Lomax | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Jack McGuire | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 8.0% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Cragin | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 13.5% | 70.1% |
| Nick Watts | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 13.9% | 17.0% | 27.0% | 11.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.