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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.64+5.97vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.95+3.96vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.82+3.51vs Predicted
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4Stanford University4.19+1.40vs Predicted
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5Yale University4.55-0.77vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+2.18vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin3.36+1.07vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania3.16+0.63vs Predicted
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9Tulane University1.34+5.24vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91-3.84vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College3.18-2.19vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida3.49-4.39vs Predicted
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13University of Notre Dame2.27-1.17vs Predicted
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14University of Florida2.20-1.93vs Predicted
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15University of Minnesota2.01-2.58vs Predicted
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17University of Southern California2.93-7.33vs Predicted
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18University of Texas-0.02-1.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.97Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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5.96Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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6.51Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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5.4Stanford University4.190.1%1st Place
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4.23Yale University4.550.2%1st Place
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8.18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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8.07University of Wisconsin3.360.1%1st Place
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8.63University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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14.24Tulane University1.340.0%1st Place
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6.16St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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8.81Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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7.61University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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11.83University of Notre Dame2.270.0%1st Place
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12.07University of Florida2.200.0%1st Place
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12.42University of Minnesota2.010.0%1st Place
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9.67University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
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16.26University of Texas-0.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Adams | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| William Macdonald | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Chung | 12.6% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Graham Landy | 18.4% | 16.7% | 15.7% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 5.3% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 5.5% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Nick Watts | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 10.3% | 15.7% | 34.8% | 14.8% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jack McGuire | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Christopher Stocke | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Mike Flanigan | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 11.8% | 13.8% | 15.7% | 10.8% | 3.8% |
| Jack Famiglietti | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 16.1% | 15.2% | 2.8% |
| Emily Oltrogge | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 20.0% | 16.1% | 4.8% |
| Matthew Hecht | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 0.3% |
| William Cragin | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 12.7% | 73.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.