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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+5.49vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.55+2.48vs Predicted
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3Stanford University4.19+2.56vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.64+3.13vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.82+1.57vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.95+0.17vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+1.12vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida3.49-0.38vs Predicted
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9University of Florida2.20+3.23vs Predicted
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10University of Notre Dame2.27+2.21vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania3.16-1.94vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College3.18-2.86vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin3.36-4.95vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California2.93-4.55vs Predicted
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15University of Minnesota2.01-2.20vs Predicted
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16Oregon State University1.47-1.61vs Predicted
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17Tulane University1.34-2.33vs Predicted
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18University of Texas-0.02-1.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.49St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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4.48Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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5.56Stanford University4.190.1%1st Place
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7.13Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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6.57Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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6.17Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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8.12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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7.62University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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12.23University of Florida2.200.0%1st Place
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12.21University of Notre Dame2.270.0%1st Place
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9.06University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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9.14Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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8.05University of Wisconsin3.360.1%1st Place
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9.45University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
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12.8University of Minnesota2.010.0%1st Place
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14.39Oregon State University1.470.0%1st Place
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14.67Tulane University1.340.0%1st Place
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16.87University of Texas-0.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Curtiss | 9.3% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Graham Landy | 14.4% | 16.4% | 12.4% | 14.3% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Chung | 11.0% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Adams | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 9.6% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Macdonald | 9.0% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stocke | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Famiglietti | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 14.5% | 13.3% | 8.5% | 1.4% |
| Mike Flanigan | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 9.7% | 1.8% |
| Jack Swikart | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Jack McGuire | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Hecht | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Emily Oltrogge | 1.4% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 17.7% | 12.1% | 2.6% |
| Cody Odou | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 12.9% | 17.0% | 23.6% | 11.6% |
| Nick Watts | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 11.6% | 18.3% | 25.9% | 13.6% |
| William Cragin | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 14.4% | 67.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.