← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Bowdoin College3.18+7.44vs Predicted
-
2University of South Florida3.49+5.50vs Predicted
-
3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+3.18vs Predicted
-
4University of Pennsylvania3.16+4.79vs Predicted
-
5University of Florida2.20+6.81vs Predicted
-
6Stanford University4.19-0.55vs Predicted
-
7Brown University3.64+0.08vs Predicted
-
8Yale University4.55-3.71vs Predicted
-
9Old Dominion University3.82-2.38vs Predicted
-
10University of Minnesota2.01+2.49vs Predicted
-
11University of Wisconsin3.36-2.77vs Predicted
-
12Roger Williams University3.95-5.95vs Predicted
-
13University of Southern California2.93-3.28vs Predicted
-
14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-5.86vs Predicted
-
15Tulane University1.34-0.93vs Predicted
-
16University of Notre Dame2.27-4.10vs Predicted
-
18University of Texas-0.02-1.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.44Bowdoin College3.180.1%1st Place
-
7.5University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
-
6.18St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
-
8.79University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
-
11.81University of Florida2.200.0%1st Place
-
5.45Stanford University4.190.1%1st Place
-
7.08Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
-
4.29Yale University4.550.2%1st Place
-
6.62Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
-
12.49University of Minnesota2.010.0%1st Place
-
8.23University of Wisconsin3.360.1%1st Place
-
6.05Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
-
9.72University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
-
8.14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
-
14.07Tulane University1.340.0%1st Place
-
11.9University of Notre Dame2.270.0%1st Place
-
16.25University of Texas-0.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack McGuire | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stocke | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Jack Famiglietti | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 14.1% | 17.0% | 12.4% | 3.4% |
| Kieran Chung | 11.2% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Adams | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Graham Landy | 19.5% | 17.4% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 7.7% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Emily Oltrogge | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 18.7% | 17.3% | 3.9% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| William Macdonald | 10.0% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Hecht | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 1.2% |
| Charles Lomax | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Nick Watts | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 15.7% | 34.5% | 15.2% |
| Mike Flanigan | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 13.8% | 15.4% | 12.3% | 3.1% |
| William Cragin | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 12.5% | 72.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.