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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+5.05vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+5.87vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California2.93+6.52vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.64+3.21vs Predicted
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5Yale University4.55-0.74vs Predicted
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6University of Minnesota2.01+6.67vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.95-0.96vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania3.16+0.62vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College3.18-0.08vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University3.82-4.62vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin3.36-3.76vs Predicted
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13University of Notre Dame2.27-1.29vs Predicted
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14University of Florida2.20-1.95vs Predicted
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15Stanford University4.19-9.54vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida3.49-8.45vs Predicted
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17Tulane University1.34-2.84vs Predicted
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18University of Texas-0.02-1.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.05St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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7.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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9.52University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
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7.21Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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4.26Yale University4.550.2%1st Place
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12.67University of Minnesota2.010.0%1st Place
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6.04Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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8.62University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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8.92Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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6.38Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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8.24University of Wisconsin3.360.1%1st Place
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11.71University of Notre Dame2.270.0%1st Place
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12.05University of Florida2.200.0%1st Place
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5.46Stanford University4.190.1%1st Place
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7.55University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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14.16Tulane University1.340.0%1st Place
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16.27University of Texas-0.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Curtiss | 10.5% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Hecht | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| Lucas Adams | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Graham Landy | 18.9% | 15.1% | 14.6% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Oltrogge | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 19.9% | 19.0% | 4.5% |
| William Macdonald | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Jack McGuire | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Esteban Forrer | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Mike Flanigan | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 14.7% | 13.8% | 12.7% | 3.4% |
| Jack Famiglietti | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 13.4% | 18.0% | 12.2% | 4.2% |
| Kieran Chung | 10.4% | 13.0% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stocke | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Nick Watts | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 15.8% | 33.6% | 14.0% |
| William Cragin | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 12.5% | 72.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.