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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.72+5.25vs Predicted
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2University of Wisconsin3.36+5.62vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.27+4.01vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+0.89vs Predicted
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6University of Notre Dame2.27+5.33vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.80-0.64vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College3.18+0.33vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida3.49-1.83vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California2.93-0.49vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania3.16-2.65vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-4.17vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University3.82-6.90vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University3.95-8.19vs Predicted
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15University of Minnesota2.01-2.55vs Predicted
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16University of Florida2.20-4.31vs Predicted
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17Tulane University1.34-2.92vs Predicted
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18University of Texas-0.02-1.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.25Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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7.62University of Wisconsin3.360.1%1st Place
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8.01Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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5.89St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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11.33University of Notre Dame2.270.0%1st Place
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6.36Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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8.33Bowdoin College3.180.1%1st Place
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7.17University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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9.51University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
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8.35University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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7.83U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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6.1Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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5.81Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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12.45University of Minnesota2.010.0%1st Place
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11.69University of Florida2.200.0%1st Place
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14.08Tulane University1.340.0%1st Place
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16.24University of Texas-0.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Kiss | 10.8% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Allman | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 12.0% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mike Flanigan | 1.6% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 11.5% | 13.1% | 15.2% | 10.2% | 2.8% |
| Hans Henken | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack McGuire | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stocke | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Hecht | 2.6% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| Jack Swikart | 4.3% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Charles Lomax | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Esteban Forrer | 10.3% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| William Macdonald | 11.2% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Emily Oltrogge | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 13.7% | 17.3% | 19.7% | 4.6% |
| Jack Famiglietti | 1.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 16.6% | 13.6% | 3.1% |
| Nick Watts | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 8.8% | 16.3% | 32.9% | 15.2% |
| William Cragin | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 12.2% | 73.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.