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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.18+7.16vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.72+4.35vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.95+2.67vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania3.16+4.53vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+0.69vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.80+0.37vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.82-0.86vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.27-0.06vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin3.36-1.10vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California2.93-0.82vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida3.49-3.60vs Predicted
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13University of Florida2.20-1.28vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-6.23vs Predicted
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15Tulane University1.34-0.93vs Predicted
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16University of Notre Dame2.27-4.51vs Predicted
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17University of Minnesota2.01-4.60vs Predicted
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18University of Texas-0.02-1.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.16Bowdoin College3.180.1%1st Place
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6.35Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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5.67Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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8.53University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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5.69St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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6.37Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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6.14Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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7.94Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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7.9University of Wisconsin3.360.1%1st Place
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9.18University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
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7.4University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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11.72University of Florida2.200.0%1st Place
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7.77U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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14.07Tulane University1.340.0%1st Place
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11.49University of Notre Dame2.270.0%1st Place
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12.4University of Minnesota2.010.0%1st Place
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16.22University of Texas-0.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack McGuire | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Kiss | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Macdonald | 11.3% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 0.3% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 11.8% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hans Henken | 9.6% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 9.3% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Allman | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Hecht | 4.1% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 0.4% |
| Christopher Stocke | 8.4% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jack Famiglietti | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 14.9% | 18.0% | 11.4% | 3.2% |
| Charles Lomax | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Nick Watts | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 10.4% | 14.1% | 34.7% | 15.5% |
| Mike Flanigan | 1.7% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 13.6% | 15.1% | 12.7% | 2.2% |
| Emily Oltrogge | 2.0% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 13.9% | 16.3% | 16.3% | 5.6% |
| William Cragin | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 12.9% | 72.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.