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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.08+4.13vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+6.94vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.73+3.28vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College3.52+2.62vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.70+1.08vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.67+0.25vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.88-1.50vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida3.15-0.04vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30-1.62vs Predicted
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10University of Florida2.38+0.98vs Predicted
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11University of Minnesota2.13+0.64vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin3.04-3.32vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.87-4.11vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California2.47-3.79vs Predicted
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15Oregon State University0.21+1.31vs Predicted
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16University of Texas0.77-0.68vs Predicted
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17University of Notre Dame1.37-3.07vs Predicted
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18Tulane University0.89-3.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.13Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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8.94U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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6.28Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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6.62Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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6.08Stanford University3.700.1%1st Place
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6.25Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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5.5Brown University3.880.1%1st Place
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7.96University of South Florida3.150.1%1st Place
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7.38St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
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10.98University of Florida2.380.0%1st Place
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11.64University of Minnesota2.130.0%1st Place
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8.68University of Wisconsin3.040.0%1st Place
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8.89University of Pennsylvania2.870.0%1st Place
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10.21University of Southern California2.470.0%1st Place
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16.31Oregon State University0.210.0%1st Place
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15.32University of Texas0.770.0%1st Place
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13.93University of Notre Dame1.370.0%1st Place
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14.89Tulane University0.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Barrows | 13.2% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Connor Corgard | 8.8% | 7.6% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Croteau | 9.3% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Antoine Screve | 10.4% | 12.0% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Augie Dale | 10.4% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pearson Potts | 11.9% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jacob La Dow | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Armington | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 0.5% |
| Alison Kent | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 15.1% | 9.5% | 4.6% | 2.1% |
| Connor Trepton | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Drew Gallagher | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Andrew Wilkinson | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 9.8% | 22.5% | 46.8% |
| Masie Comen | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 17.7% | 24.7% | 23.8% |
| Patrick Power | 0.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 11.0% | 14.1% | 19.7% | 16.2% | 9.2% |
| Jessica Oswalt | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 20.5% | 23.4% | 17.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.