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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.52+5.73vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.67+4.12vs Predicted
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3University of Texas0.77+12.24vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.70+1.85vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida3.15+2.74vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.88-0.65vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin3.04+1.23vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.73-2.29vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-0.50vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California2.47+0.47vs Predicted
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11University of Minnesota2.13+0.51vs Predicted
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12Yale University3.25-4.25vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30-5.85vs Predicted
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14University of Florida2.38-3.71vs Predicted
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15University of Notre Dame0.86-0.11vs Predicted
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16Tulane University1.39-2.32vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania2.87-8.04vs Predicted
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18Oregon State University-0.40-1.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.73Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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6.12Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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15.24University of Texas0.770.0%1st Place
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5.85Stanford University3.700.1%1st Place
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7.74University of South Florida3.150.1%1st Place
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5.35Brown University3.880.1%1st Place
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8.23University of Wisconsin3.040.1%1st Place
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5.71Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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8.5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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10.47University of Southern California2.470.0%1st Place
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11.51University of Minnesota2.130.0%1st Place
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7.75Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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7.15St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
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10.29University of Florida2.380.0%1st Place
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14.89University of Notre Dame0.860.0%1st Place
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13.68Tulane University1.390.0%1st Place
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8.96University of Pennsylvania2.870.0%1st Place
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16.84Oregon State University-0.400.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Croteau | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Augie Dale | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Masie Comen | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 6.4% | 10.7% | 18.1% | 31.0% | 16.0% |
| Antoine Screve | 11.9% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 7.0% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Pearson Potts | 12.1% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Trepton | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Connor Corgard | 10.9% | 11.9% | 12.5% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 4.5% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Alison Kent | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 12.9% | 11.0% | 4.3% | 1.4% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jacob La Dow | 8.0% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Armington | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Christian Koerwer | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 11.6% | 21.7% | 26.9% | 12.4% |
| Alexandra Payne | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 17.8% | 19.4% | 15.0% | 5.4% |
| Drew Gallagher | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Alexander Muschler | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 8.4% | 16.0% | 63.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.