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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+7.25vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30+4.91vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.25+4.07vs Predicted
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4Oregon State University0.21+12.08vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida3.15+2.25vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.38+0.48vs Predicted
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7University of Minnesota2.13+4.08vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.20-0.95vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.44-2.77vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin3.04-2.10vs Predicted
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11University of Florida2.38-0.70vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.77-2.96vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College3.52-7.14vs Predicted
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14University of Notre Dame0.86+0.71vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.87-6.75vs Predicted
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16University of Southern California2.47-6.08vs Predicted
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17Tulane University1.39-3.32vs Predicted
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18University of Texas0.77-3.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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6.91St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
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7.07Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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16.08Oregon State University0.210.0%1st Place
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7.25University of South Florida3.150.1%1st Place
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6.48Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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11.08University of Minnesota2.130.0%1st Place
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7.05Old Dominion University3.200.1%1st Place
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6.23Stanford University3.440.1%1st Place
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7.9University of Wisconsin3.040.1%1st Place
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10.3University of Florida2.380.0%1st Place
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9.04Roger Williams University2.770.1%1st Place
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5.86Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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14.71University of Notre Dame0.860.0%1st Place
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8.25University of Pennsylvania2.870.1%1st Place
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9.92University of Southern California2.470.0%1st Place
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13.68Tulane University1.390.0%1st Place
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14.95University of Texas0.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Bates | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Jacob La Dow | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Wilkinson | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 6.7% | 10.4% | 18.8% | 46.8% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 7.2% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alison Kent | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 4.5% | 1.1% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 7.4% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Axel Sly | 10.0% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Connor Trepton | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Armington | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Henry Vogel | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Michael Croteau | 12.0% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christian Koerwer | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 10.4% | 15.8% | 23.9% | 19.1% |
| Drew Gallagher | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| John Coakley | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Alexandra Payne | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 12.3% | 18.3% | 18.2% | 9.3% |
| Masie Comen | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 11.0% | 16.7% | 25.4% | 20.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.