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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.25+6.13vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.38+4.61vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+5.23vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College3.52+1.88vs Predicted
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5University of Wisconsin3.04+2.67vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California2.47+3.86vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.20+0.03vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida3.15-0.75vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.87-0.67vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.44-3.52vs Predicted
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11University of Minnesota2.13+0.24vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.77-2.98vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30-6.40vs Predicted
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14University of Notre Dame0.86+0.72vs Predicted
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15Tulane University1.39-1.50vs Predicted
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16University of Florida2.38-5.77vs Predicted
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17Oregon State University0.21-0.75vs Predicted
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18University of Texas0.77-3.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.13Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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6.61Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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8.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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5.88Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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7.67University of Wisconsin3.040.1%1st Place
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9.86University of Southern California2.470.0%1st Place
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7.03Old Dominion University3.200.1%1st Place
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7.25University of South Florida3.150.1%1st Place
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8.33University of Pennsylvania2.870.1%1st Place
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6.48Stanford University3.440.1%1st Place
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11.24University of Minnesota2.130.0%1st Place
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9.02Roger Williams University2.770.1%1st Place
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6.6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
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14.72University of Notre Dame0.860.0%1st Place
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13.5Tulane University1.390.0%1st Place
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10.23University of Florida2.380.0%1st Place
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16.25Oregon State University0.210.0%1st Place
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14.97University of Texas0.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Lamphere | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Michael Croteau | 12.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Trepton | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| John Coakley | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 7.2% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Drew Gallagher | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Axel Sly | 10.7% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alison Kent | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 6.1% | 2.0% |
| Henry Vogel | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Jacob La Dow | 9.9% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Christian Koerwer | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 16.9% | 23.4% | 18.5% |
| Alexandra Payne | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 15.3% | 16.9% | 16.7% | 6.9% |
| Samuel Armington | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 0.6% |
| Andrew Wilkinson | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 6.0% | 10.8% | 19.2% | 49.4% |
| Masie Comen | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 10.5% | 18.4% | 24.2% | 21.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.