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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.80+7.49vs Predicted
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2Fordham University3.11+9.63vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin3.04+8.90vs Predicted
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4Yale University4.08+3.10vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.41+4.86vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.67+2.83vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.51+2.54vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+0.89vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston3.89-1.14vs Predicted
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10Boston College3.92-1.96vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College3.25-0.19vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.79-3.27vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-1.22vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University3.73-5.71vs Predicted
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15Brown University3.88-7.08vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College3.18-4.93vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy3.44-6.98vs Predicted
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18St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30-7.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.49Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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11.63Fordham University3.110.0%1st Place
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11.9University of Wisconsin3.040.0%1st Place
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7.1Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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9.86Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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8.83Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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9.54Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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8.89U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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7.86College of Charleston3.890.1%1st Place
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8.04Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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10.81SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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8.73Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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11.78U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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8.29Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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7.92Brown University3.880.1%1st Place
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11.07Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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10.02U. S. Naval Academy3.440.0%1st Place
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10.23St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hans Henken | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% |
| Connor Godfrey | 2.7% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 12.0% |
| Connor Trepton | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 12.7% |
| Ian Barrows | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Dan Nickerson | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% |
| Augie Dale | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.8% |
| Alex Post | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% |
| Nikole Barnes | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.3% |
| Charles Rees | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% |
| William Bailey | 8.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Zachary Hill | 5.1% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.4% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% |
| Andrew Bates | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 15.3% |
| Connor Corgard | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.0% |
| Pearson Potts | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Jack McGuire | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 9.0% | 10.9% |
| Michael Popp | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% |
| Jacob La Dow | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.