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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.44+9.04vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.08+5.21vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+6.18vs Predicted
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4Fordham University3.11+7.06vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.60+4.03vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.65+2.95vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.92+0.70vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.67+0.70vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.98+2.78vs Predicted
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10Brown University3.88-1.83vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.79-2.57vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University3.47-1.95vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin3.04-1.66vs Predicted
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14Stanford University3.80-6.02vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College3.25-4.43vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College3.18-5.00vs Predicted
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17College of Charleston3.89-8.95vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-6.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.04U. S. Naval Academy3.440.0%1st Place
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7.21Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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9.18U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.0%1st Place
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11.06Fordham University3.110.0%1st Place
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9.03St. Mary's College of Maryland3.600.1%1st Place
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8.95Tufts University3.650.1%1st Place
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7.7Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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8.7Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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11.78Roger Williams University2.980.0%1st Place
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8.17Brown University3.880.1%1st Place
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8.43Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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10.05Georgetown University3.470.0%1st Place
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11.34University of Wisconsin3.040.0%1st Place
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7.98Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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10.57SUNY Maritime College3.250.0%1st Place
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11.0Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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8.05College of Charleston3.890.1%1st Place
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11.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Popp | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% |
| Ian Barrows | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Nikole Barnes | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% |
| Connor Godfrey | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 10.3% |
| Chase Quinn | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% |
| Duncan Swain | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% |
| William Bailey | 7.4% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% |
| Augie Dale | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% |
| Stewart Draheim | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 11.7% |
| Pearson Potts | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% |
| Sean Golden | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% |
| Connor Trepton | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 12.2% |
| Hans Henken | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 1.9% |
| Zachary Hill | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% |
| Jack McGuire | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 10.5% |
| Charles Rees | 8.8% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% |
| Andrew Bates | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 13.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.