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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.89+1.74vs Predicted
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2San Diego State University1.47+4.64vs Predicted
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3Western Washington University1.81+2.46vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley0.98+3.06vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.90+3.03vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.91+3.20vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.35+2.96vs Predicted
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8University of Washington0.64+1.48vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis0.07+1.67vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara1.35-4.54vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University0.66-1.21vs Predicted
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12University of Hawaii1.31-4.83vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-0.36+1.83vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-0.34-1.32vs Predicted
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15California Poly Maritime Academy0.53-5.54vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego0.03-4.24vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands-1.54-0.95vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-0.87-3.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.74Stanford University2.8932.1%1st Place
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6.64San Diego State University1.477.2%1st Place
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5.46Western Washington University1.819.6%1st Place
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7.06University of California at Berkeley0.985.8%1st Place
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8.03University of Southern California0.905.5%1st Place
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9.2University of California at Santa Cruz0.913.4%1st Place
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9.96Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.353.5%1st Place
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9.48University of Washington0.642.9%1st Place
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10.67University of California at Davis0.072.0%1st Place
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5.46University of California at Santa Barbara1.3510.4%1st Place
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9.79Arizona State University0.662.5%1st Place
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7.17University of Hawaii1.316.5%1st Place
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14.83University of California at Irvine-0.360.5%1st Place
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12.68University of California at Los Angeles-0.341.4%1st Place
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9.46California Poly Maritime Academy0.533.6%1st Place
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11.76University of California at San Diego0.032.0%1st Place
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16.05California State University Channel Islands-1.540.3%1st Place
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14.55University of California at San Diego-0.870.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reade Decker | 32.1% | 23.7% | 16.6% | 11.8% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Leif Hauge | 9.6% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Cornell | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Colin Olson | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Lhotse Rowell | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 0.9% |
| Jasper Reid | 10.4% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matt Grimsley | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Everett McAvoy | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 23.1% | 22.8% |
| Rigel Mummers | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 14.9% | 11.8% | 6.3% |
| Sam Jennings | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Skyler Chaffey | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 7.3% | 2.5% |
| Brent Lin | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 10.3% | 18.6% | 46.3% |
| Alex Bussey | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 16.0% | 22.9% | 17.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.