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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+7.85vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.13+1.69vs Predicted
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3Stanford University1.64+2.07vs Predicted
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4San Diego State University0.19+6.23vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-0.72vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.09+0.64vs Predicted
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7University of Washington-2.55+0.18vs Predicted
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8University of Hawaii1.05-1.32vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University0.54-0.27vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-0.39+2.92vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands-1.40+3.47vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine-0.84+1.16vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley0.74-5.31vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-0.19-3.88vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-2.10-0.54vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-1.13-1.39vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-1.41-2.15vs Predicted
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18California Poly Maritime Academy0.88-10.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.85University of California at Santa Cruz0.823.6%1st Place
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3.69Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.1321.4%1st Place
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5.07Stanford University1.6411.7%1st Place
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10.23San Diego State University0.192.8%1st Place
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4.28University of California at Santa Barbara1.4416.6%1st Place
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6.64University of Southern California1.095.9%1st Place
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7.18University of Washington-2.556.7%1st Place
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6.68University of Hawaii1.057.5%1st Place
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8.73Western Washington University0.543.9%1st Place
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12.92Arizona State University-0.391.1%1st Place
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14.47California State University Channel Islands-1.400.5%1st Place
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13.16University of California at Irvine-0.840.9%1st Place
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7.69University of California at Berkeley0.745.6%1st Place
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10.12University of California at Davis-0.193.0%1st Place
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14.46University of California at Los Angeles-2.100.9%1st Place
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14.61University of California at San Diego-1.130.7%1st Place
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14.85University of California at San Diego-1.410.7%1st Place
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7.38California Poly Maritime Academy0.886.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Soliman | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Morgan Headington | 21.4% | 19.1% | 14.3% | 12.8% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Whidden | 11.7% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Gormely | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Ted McDonough | 16.6% | 16.2% | 14.3% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Conze | 5.9% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Maxwell Miller | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 7.5% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gerber | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 10.0% | 6.8% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 16.8% | 20.7% |
| Brayden Money | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 13.0% | 13.7% | 11.7% | 6.9% |
| Katherine Olsen | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Orion Spatafora | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 14.8% | 18.9% | 18.5% |
| Ian Johnston | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 14.5% | 18.1% | 22.3% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 11.8% | 14.9% | 18.6% | 23.1% |
| Owen Cuyler | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.